Fianna Fáil hovers between pessimism and optimism

F Scott Fitzgerald said the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind, at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.

If he was right, then Fianna Fáil is without doubt a party of geniuses. Judging by the private and public views of its TDs, Senators, MEPs, Ministers and assorted handlers who assembled for the party’s two-day think-in in Mullingar. The party collectively holds these two thoughts in its mind simultaneously: one, that it is performing well in government, offering leadership and capable government through times of unprecedented challenges which voters recognise and will remember; and two, that it is on a seemingly irrevocable path towards electoral doom and political irrelevance.

And so pessimism and optimism compete not just between the different camps in the party, but often in the minds of individual TDs. They talk earnestly about the daunting experience of being in government during first a pandemic and then an inflationary spiral the like of which has not been seen since the oil crisis of the 1970s.

They spit about what they see as the cynicism and populism of Sinn Féin, accusing that party of opportunist opposition and a lack of real, workable solutions.

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Housing and public coffers

They point to the progress that is being made (slowly) in housing and the spectacular economic recovery that has filled the public coffers. And then they wonder if they will have a recognisable Fianna Fáil in the future.

Some of this dual-think is tied up in the question about the party’s next leader. But even those most fiercely opposed to Micheál Martin’s leadership know that question is settled until after the changeover in government at the end of the year. (After that, however, they have very definite ideas about what should happen.) And whoever the leader is – no consensus on that either – he or she will have to deal with the inevitable questions about the party’s future.

For now, though, what the party needs is perhaps an injection of realism. The truth is that it is neither irredeemably doomed nor a shining beacon of good government. Instead, a fairer summary is that it is playing a part in a government that has managed some big things capably – the pandemic for one, the economy and public finances for another – but is struggling to address systemic difficulties in areas like healthcare, housing and the way many public services are delivered and that are impacting negatively on many people’s lives.

Poll performance

An aggregate look at the opinion polls tends to find agreement with this mixed verdict. In most polls, Fianna Fáil support has not cratered since the general election, as you would expect if the country had definitively turned against the party. Support is down a bit, as mid-term governments often find. The same could be said for the Government as a whole. In the last Irish Times/Ipsos poll, combined support for the three Coalition parties was about 10 points below where it was at the general election. One poll at the weekend showed a bigger fall, one showed a smaller fall. Take your pick.

The best summary is probably that support for the Coalition is down, but not catastrophically or necessarily unrecoverably so. Where is it going in the future? That depends on what happens over the next two years.

Much of that future is unknowable for now. What will happen in Ukraine? How does that affect inflation? Are we headed into recession? Or will the extraordinary performance of the Irish economy continue?

Guest speaker on Monday night was the former Kilkenny hurling boss Brian Cody, the most successful manager in the history of the game. Cody tended not to worry about the opposition too much, but concentrated on getting his own game plan right, and his own team ready to implement it. Perhaps that was the message that Micheál Martin wants his TDs to hear.