US primary model would do wonders here

It would be an Irish political junkie's dream come true. Imagine if we had primaries in Ireland, and the fun we would have with our very own version of Super Tuesday.

We directly elect our president in this country and it would be fascinating to open up the process by which presidential candidates are selected. However, the real power in the Irish political system resides in Government Buildings, not Áras an Uachtaráin, so it would be far more exciting if we had primaries to choose the leaders of the two main parties and, by extension, the alternative candidates for taoiseach.

Ireland's next taoiseach will probably be elected at some point in the next two years. Barring an unforeseen general election won by Fine Gael and Labour (a double improbability), the next leader of Fianna Fáil will be the next taoiseach. Under the party's current rules, this person will be chosen by just 78 people - the party's TDs.

There are many good arguments in favour of leaving the decision on Bertie Ahern's successor with the Fianna Fáil members of Dáil Éireann. We have a representative rather than a direct democracy; we elect TDs and they elect the taoiseach and government in a Dáil vote.

The argument is also made that TDs, by reason of their proximity to them, know the contenders best. They will have had years to observe their strengths and weaknesses and how they operate as ministers or party figures. In making the decision, TDs will be acutely aware of the need for their new leader to have electoral appeal because their own seats will be on the line if the new leader proves electorally unattractive.

As against that, the central weakness of leaving the decision to TDs is that the decision-making pool is very small. Each TD has a particular personal interest in the outcome; patronage and personal ambition exercise much influence on their choice. The new leader will appoint colleagues to about 30 ministerial positions, so backing the winner is important. Self-interest becomes as important as party or national interest.

Opening the decision to a wider public vote would truly test the contenders. Putting them through the rigours of a contest similar to the US primaries would showcase their respective campaign skills, force them to outline their policies, focus on their competencies and test their endurance in full public view.

An Irish version of the US primary model would run something like this. As the annual register of electors is compiled, voters would have the option of indicating in which, if any, party's primary they would like to be a registered voter. Then, when the primary came along in their chosen party, they would go to the polls to indicate their preference. Fianna Fáil could run such a primary for Ahern's successor over a few months in the autumn of 2008 or the spring of 2009. Kerry or Donegal could be our Iowa or New Hampshire, by hosting the early primaries where the candidates would have to truly engage in retail campaigning, seeking to gain momentum handshake by handshake, coffee shop by coffee shop, if not door to door.

It would be fun to speculate about who the contenders for such a primary contest would be. Brian Cowen, of course, would certainly start out the frontrunner. Cowen currently holds an overwhelming majority among the party officers and public representatives who would be the equivalent of "super delegates". He is also the hero of the Fianna Fáil grassroots and opinion polls are already suggesting he has a substantial early lead among the general electorate. He could run an "inevitability" strategy similar to that of Hillary Clinton, at least initially.

However, somebody like Micheál Martin might be more easily tempted to compete against Cowen in a primary contest than under the current system. The lock which Cowen currently has on the parliamentary party is intimidating for any opponent but a succession contest which had some public involvement would be more volatile; there would always be room for a slip-up.

In any such two-horse race, Martin could be expected to sweep up convention delegates in the five Cork constituencies and even across Munster.

Cowen would have Laois-Offaly sewn up and maybe also the surrounding constituencies of north Leinster. The real fun would be to see which one of them did best when the primaries were held in the 12 Dublin constituencies.

Indeed, because Dublin voters would be the largest bloc in any such primary contest, someone like Mary Hanafin or Brian Lenihan might even be tempted into the field. It would be interesting to see what support either of them attracted not only in the capital but also in counties such as Tipperary and Roscommon where they have their respective family political bases. Hanafin, of course, like Hillary, would also offer primary voters the attraction of electing Ireland's first female taoiseach.

In such a contest it is even possible that one of the fresher faces in the parliamentary party might be so bold as to take on the titans, seek to capture a mood for "change" and surge Obama-like to a face-off with Cowen - although it hard to think of anyone here who would have the skills of oratory or prove as inspirational as Obama.

One of the real attractions of wider public participation in the election of the next leader would be the fact that it would force a real debate between the contenders. The Democratic Party in the United States has had no fewer then 17 televised debates between the candidates during the course of the presidential election primaries. Debates like that between Fianna Fáil leadership contenders would be a refreshing change. Policy debate within the party, such as it is, is currently confined to around the Cabinet table or to occasional motions at weekly parliamentary party meetings.

Of course it will never happen. I'm not even sure it would necessarily be a better system but it would certainly be a lot of fun.