Dr Condoleezza Rice's announcement that the United States is ready to join direct talks with Iran is a major and a welcome shift in the Bush administration's stance on the confrontation over that country's nuclear programme. It will undoubtedly strengthen the European initiative to reach a settlement with Iran on this and other issues. As a result, agreement over what course Iran's interlocutors should follow at the United Nations Security Council will be easier to reach, if Iran refuses to co-operate.
It will take several weeks to test whether all involved are ready to make an attempt to resolve their differences. Yesterday's announcement by the Iranian foreign minister that Tehran is ready to talk, but not to suspend the nuclear enrichment which could eventually allow it to produce nuclear weapons, is unlikely to be that state's last word. It should certainly not be taken at face value. After 26 years of non-engagement between the US and Iran it was only to be expected that the initial moves towards direct talks would be hedged with conditions.
There has been a fierce ideological battle in both Washington and Tehran over whether it is desirable or possible to have semi-normal, or normal, relations between them. Dr Rice's announcement signals a definite victory for the administration's pragmatic realists over neo-conservative supporters of regime change in Iran. But by saying she is not interested in a grand bargain which would take in security, economic and political guarantees Dr Rice has distanced herself from those who believe this is the best way to influence Iranian leaders over the long term and encourage peaceful political change there.
Iranian leaders are also divided on tactics and strategy. The balance of political forces there between the radical supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who want to press ahead with the nuclear programme, and those favouring a compromise on the issue is contingent on political circumstances. The US move is well calculated to exploit such divisions. It should open up political and diplomatic space in which the confrontation can be scaled down and brought towards a settlement.
Whether it will do so depends enormously now on how skilfully Britain, France, Germany and the European Union lead the bargaining they have been involved in for nearly three years in an effort to reach an agreement with Iran. This has been continually frustrated by uncertainty over Washington's attitude and the consequent refusal of Russia and China to go along with UN sanctions. All these states have welcomed Dr Rice's announcement. This made it easier for them to finalise a course of action in Vienna last night. The proposals to Iran are likely to include providing it with a light water reactor and a guaranteed supply of atomic fuel if it agrees to cease nuclear enrichment. But unless the talks go on to recognise Iran's genuine security problems and its need for guarantees against attack they are not likely to succeed.