RITE AND REASON:A disaffected Sunni Muslim majority in Syria will ensure the Assad regime cannot survive
BEFORE THE recent revolt by its people, beginning in Deraa and then spreading to other cities including Damascus, the common belief was that Syria would never be stricken by the revolutionary tsunami which has swept through many Arab countries this year.
It was thought very unlikely Syria would have to confront the same scenario as developed in Egypt and Tunisia, for example.
Those who had this misconception based their argument on the fact that in Syria people were accustomed to conforming, and enjoyed certain freedoms along with political stability in recent times.
However, that opinion did not take into consideration a very important factor in the recipe for peace: the desire for equality. It failed to accommodate the fact that the longer the silence of a pent-up volcano, the sooner the explosion will arrive.
The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt started suddenly and, just as suddenly, turned into a hell which burned down well-guarded thrones which had been sustained through state oppression for 40 years.
In the past, a number of small revolutions had been carried out in Syria but, under the guise of open confrontation with the Zionist enemy, the state brutally suppressed them.
Then the regime convinced its people that due to the Syrian-Israeli war there was a dire need for an inclusive system. Deeming democracy a luxury, it applied emergency law.
Some thought Syria was unlikely to be affected by the revolutionary tsunami because its security forces were spread through all layers of Syrian society.
However, history teaches us that nearly all successful revolutions accomplished their coup d’états against regimes thought to be coherent and difficult to penetrate.
It was also a fatal mistake to think Syria’s ruling Alawites were united under the leadership of Bashar al-Assad. He is challenged even by his own uncle, Rifa’t al-Assad, who was forced to leave Syria.
A number of political ideologies have currency among the Alawites, and there are loyalties to various political parties. Most critically, there is also disagreement about the regime.
It is incorrect to think a coherent Alawite regime rules Syria. So it is no wonder Syria has become subject to this revolutionary tsunami.
Meanwhile, the Sunni majority feels the regime is under the exclusive grip of the Alawite group. Sunnis also believe Alawites control Syria’s natural resources, while marginalising all other citizens.
This effect can be seen clearly in Deraa, whose people have endured a tragic history under the regime, and where many may now feel the time is right to take revenge.
The Sunni majority accuses the regime of assassinating Rafik al-Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, in 2005, and blames it for the continuing occupation of the Golan Heights and for the problems in Lebanon. The Sunnis accuse it also of forming an allegiance with the Shia militant group Hizbullah, and with Iran.
These accusations and others have made the revolutionary tsunami possible in Syria. The rebels will not be satisfied just by certain reforms. The regime’s actions in attempting to suppress the rebels have resulted in a demand for nothing less than its removal. It is sad to see this happening in Syria, whose capital, Damascus, is the oldest city in the world. The brutal crimes perpetrated by the regime in the attempt to suppress the country’s revolution will turn Damascus into a bloodbath – and replace its cultural heritage with anarchy.
Enough: it is time for the United Nations to take a determined step in the right direction.
Ali Selim is a Sunni Muslim spokesman based at the Clonskeagh Mosque in Dublin. aliicci@gmail.com