The Government's decision as to what strategy it should now adopt in relation to the Provisional republican movement depends entirely on what is happening within that movement, writes Mark Brennock
There are two possible and contrasting scenarios. One is that there is tension within the movement between, on the one hand, those who want to integrate entirely into the political system and leave violence behind, and, on the other hand, those who want to continue with the IRA as an active armed force.
The second possible scenario is that this talk of a division is bogus, and that Sinn Féin and the IRA are in effect part of one indivisible, homogeneous movement united behind a twin-track strategy involving both political activity and violent and criminal activity.
The Government has been winning a propaganda war with the Provisional republican movement in recent weeks. To continue to do so it must make the public both understand and accept its analysis.
One would, therefore, expect that on this most fundamental question - what is actually happening within the Provisional republican movement - the Government would be putting across a single, clear analysis. But it is not.
The Taoiseach clearly adheres to the view that there are differences between two distinct elements of the movement.
On Monday, he gave reporters an account of what he thought had happened. "Why did we break down on the eighth of December on the criminality end?" he asked. "We know about decommissioning. But why did we break down on criminality? It is because Sinn Féin went to the IRA and the IRA would not allow them the movement. That is what happened. Sinn Féin went to the IRA. But Sinn Féin has to work that out."
He went on to say that the Belfast Agreement could not be implemented successfully, "if the republican movement says, 'No', if they tie the hands of the political leadership as they did in December. And that is what they did the previous October and they did it the previous April. Three times."
So this analysis is clear: Sinn Féin is seeking to sign the Provisional republican movement up to an end to criminality but the IRA won't let them. They tried three times but each time the progressive political leadership had its hands tied by the irredentist group which is refusing to cut its links with the violent past.
The Taoiseach does not accept that Sinn Féin and the IRA are separate organisations. He regularly refers to them as "two sides of the same coin".
He has said that the Sinn Féin leadership knew of the Northern Bank robbery in advance. But the picture he painted on Monday is of a movement containing groups in dynamic tension with each other, advocating sharply different future strategies.
The Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, gave a very different analysis just last Friday. "There is no division among them. It's total and absolute control, and it controls both their military and political side ... The notion that prominent figures in suits will go to people in masks and try to persuade them of things . . . that simply is not the case."
This was not a one-off account of the situation. Less than a fortnight ago, Mr McDowell told RTÉ: "Our view in the Irish Government is that there is complete unity of purpose among the top leadership of the Provisional movement. The impression carefully cultivated by some of the public faces of the Provisional movement that they are somehow persuaders of more recalcitrant and hard-headed individuals that have to be brought along; that's a false impression.
"They all agree on what they are doing and they all agree on keeping the door open to criminality."
This difference of analysis is of much more significance than the differences over whether the Taoiseach and his Ministers are able accurately to name members of the IRA's army council.
The Taoiseach said on Monday that he hadn't "personal knowledge" of who was on the army council. The Minister for Justice felt able to assert that Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Martin Ferris were on the army council. The Tánaiste, Ms Harney, said a few weeks ago that Mr Ferris was on it.
Events of the past two months have given Government figures unprecedented credibility when they purport to give an account of what is going on within the republican movement.
Sinn Féin and the IRA's narrative (which includes claims that the IRA didn't rob the bank, that Gerry Adams was never in the IRA and that Sinn Féin has no links to IRA acts) is ridiculed. Ministers are widely believed. In the court of public opinion, there is currently very little contest.
This is to the extent that the Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism, Mr O'Donoghue, could go on RTÉ's Questions and Answers programme on Monday night and say: "Everybody knows that the Provisional IRA robbed the Northern Bank. Everybody knows that the IRA has been involved in systematic criminality. Everybody knows that the Provisional IRA has been involved in brutality. Everybody knows that it is Sinn Féin and the IRA that have brought us to this sorry pass."
He was right: there has been no recent opinion poll but it seems very likely that just about everybody who has been paying attention does believe that the IRA robbed the bank and is involved in crimin- ality and brutality.
There is considerable public confusion as to what is happening within the Provisional republican movement, but there is a high level of public trust in the Government's approach.
To maintain that public trust, the Government must give the public a credible, consistent account of what is going on.