There are signs of hope for Darfur, but the international community must fulfil its duty, writes Tom Arnold.
The sufferings of Darfur have been evident for over a year. The actions, and inactions, of the government of Sudan, the rebels, the international community and the UN have failed its suffering people.
Yet for a desperately poor country, where there has been civil war for most of the past 50 years since independence from Britain, there are some seeds of hope.
The first is the "internationalisation" of the problem and recognition that solutions can only be delivered by Sudan and the international community working together. The second is the signing in January of a comprehensive peace agreement (the Naivasha Agreement) by the government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) ending the long-running civil war.
Naivasha, like the Belfast Agreement, provides a framework for a historic accommodation between rival traditions and puts in place a power-sharing administration for six years (after which there will be decisions on longer-term arrangements).
It also provides a programme of economic and social development to underpin the peace which the Oslo international donors' conference this week, attended by Conor Lenihan on behalf of the Government, is being asked to help finance.
Like the Belfast Agreement, it has elements of "constructive ambiguity", needed to reach agreement but possibly storing up difficulties for the future. Early momentum is important. If the wider Sudanese peace process is seen to work, it may help to resolve some of the difficulties of Darfur.
Any solution must involve interlocking political, security, humanitarian and development initiatives.
The approach to political progress must be comprehensive and inclusive. The deep and complex historical roots of the current crisis, involving different ethnic groups and political movements, must be addressed.
In Darfur there are two separate, if interrelated, conflicts. The first, the political one between the Sudanese government and the rebel groups, is about autonomy and resource allocation. The second, the more difficult, is about access to land, in which the militia of camel-herding Arabs of northern Darfur are attacking settled African communities. It will require local mediation. .
Sustained engagement between the Sudanese government and the key international players is of critical importance, but complex. The government is sensitive about its sovereignty and wary of external involvement, recently shown by its refusal to accept the UN resolution that 51 named individuals, suspected of crimes against humanity in Darfur, be referred to the International Criminal Court.
The first Bush administration, particularly former special envoy Senator John Danforth, deserves credit for moving the Sudanese government and the SPLA to sign the Naivasha Agreement. It is now urgent that the US government appoints a new special envoy.
The Security Council has not distinguished itself in the speed or coherence of its response to Darfur, but some UN agencies have been effective in delivering services and co-ordinating aid.
UN secretary general Kofi Annan is deeply committed to a more urgent and effective international response and recently invited aid agencies working there to a meeting in New York, which I attended on behalf of Concern. Through the agencies, he wants to engage with a wider public which, he hopes, will put political pressure on governments for more action.
The EU must decide how to use its political and financial weight to help Sudan and Darfur, while Annan has encouraged Arab governments to play their part in working towards a solution.
If the displaced people in Darfur are to leave the camps and return to their homes, they must also feel they are safe from attack. This will not happen until security is substantially improved.
In August 2004 the Security Council decided to deploy 3,000 troops from the African Union (AU) and 1,800 civilian police. Deployment was slow, and to date only 2,200 troops and 110 police have arrived. As Darfur is the size of France, these numbers are woefully inadequate.
Last month the Security Council authorised the establishment of a peacekeeping mission (UNMIS) of 10,000 troops to support the implementation of Naivasha. This is a positive development. But Annan acknowledges there is a severe shortage of well-trained peacekeepers.
There is a grave risk that, like the AU Darfur mission, the deployment will be too slow and will not have the numbers to fulfil its mandate. Here, too, the EU and the Government will each have to decide on the financial, military and logistics support to provide to UNMIS.
Improved security is critical if the aid agencies are to deliver assistance to over two million displaced people.
The situation the agencies found in 2004, when they eventually got access to Darfur, was appalling: frightened hungry people living in makeshift camps short of water and sanitation; the men afraid to leave the camps because they would be killed; the women because they would be raped.
The rapid scaling up of international aid in the second half of 2004 stabilised the situation. Supplies from the World Food Programme (WFP), distributed by agencies like Concern, prevented widespread loss of life. But it is a very fragile stability.
The massive population displacement in 2004 prevented crop planting, so there is very little harvest in 2005. Nearly 1.7 million people are currently displaced, and 2.5 million are in need of humanitarian assistance. With people still too fearful to return to their villages, there will be little planting for this year either and a need for continued aid through 2006.
It is profoundly worrying that the WFP has received only 15 per cent of the resources it needs to carry out its programme in Sudan this year and will have to cut back on its rations in Darfur as early as June.
Decisive action is terribly urgent if the situation is not to spiral downwards and leave over two million people dependent on long-term aid.
Getting the political framework right is the precondition for a longer-term solution. But big decisions, on providing resources for improved security and - most vitally - on ensuring people have enough to eat, are even more urgent.
The seeds of hope need a lot of nurturing.
Tom Arnold is CEO of Concern