ANALYSIS:A winter of strikes and protests seems unavoidable, writes MARTIN WALL
AS THINGS stand, the country appears to be heading for strikes and industrial unrest on a scale not seen for many years.
The planned protests and stoppages stem from two separate but linked issues – the strong hints dropped by the Government that further pay cuts for the 300,000-plus workers in the public sector are on the agenda for the Budget in December, and also from the deep unhappiness of the trade union movement at the Government’s overall budgetary strategy and the conviction that an alternative approach would be both feasible and fairer.
The Government is still hoping that an agreed economic recovery strategy can be negotiated with the unions, employers and other social partners. However, at this stage, the prospect of such a deal is by no means certain to say the least.
At the heart of the problem is the fact that the Government and the trade unions appear to be on completely different wavelengths as to the most appropriate economic and budgetary strategy for dealing with the crisis in the public finances.
In essence, the Government wants to bring borrowing levels back to three per cent of GDP within five years. To achieve this aim it is planning to reduce expenditure this year by up to €4 billion, and it has argued that none of the main areas of exchequer spending, including the €20 billion public pay and pensions bill, can be off-limits.
The unions on the other hand are arguing that stabilisation of the public finances should be brought about over a longer period of time. They contends that the measures that have to be taken to achieve the Government’s five-year target would be “too brutal, too quick” and would wreck the economy. The unions also believe that there is scope for increased borrowing for a period and that higher taxation for the wealthy will have to form a part of the equation.
In the absence of any new economic recovery deal, the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (Ictu) is planning to bring tens of thousands of people out on to the streets in eight locations on Friday, November 6th, as part of a campaign of advocacy in favour of its “fairer way” of tackling the problems in the public finances.
Ictu is not a trade union, and it has insisted that its day of protest is not a national strike. However, Ictu president Jack O’Connor said yesterday that it would be encouraging workers to take time off to attend. If the rallies are successful – and the last Ictu street demonstration in February attracted up to 120,000 people – much of the country could come to a halt on that Friday afternoon.
The Ictu strategy behind the day of protest would appear to be multi-layered. Firstly, many trade union leaders believe that they made a mistake in calling off a previous national day of demonstration in March to go back into what proved to be fruitless talks with the Government. Secondly, they are insistent that despite the criticism of their opponents, this is not a mindless campaign of opposition to the introduction of necessary measures to rectify the economy, but rather a campaign aimed at showing the Government that there is a fairer and economically feasible alternative strategy that would give hope to the public.
Trade union leaders are also anxious to stress that the new advocacy campaign will involve all workers, not just those in the public sector.
However, parallel to Ictu’s campaign and its national day of protest, public sector unions are also preparing for industrial action in their own right to protect existing pay levels. Separately, there is potential for industrial unrest in parts of the private sector where Siptu is balloting workers in companies which have unilaterally imposed pay cuts or not paid the terms of the pay deal reached last year, or put in place an alternative arrangement.
The Irish Timesunderstands that on Tuesday night Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan told trade union leaders that the Government wanted to cut the public sector pay bill by €1.3 billion next year – the first time such specific figures had emerged.
Reductions in the public sector pay bill do not necessarily mean cuts in actual core pay – the savings could come from a scaling back of numbers employed or by paring back overtime, premium rates or allowances paid to some public sector staff.
However, it is understood that union leaders are most reluctant to discuss how this €1.3 billion in savings could be achieved.
It would appear that whichever option the Government chooses, it will face trouble from some quarter. Yesterday, members of Impact, the largest public sector union, voted overwhelmingly for strike action in the event of the Government cutting pay. At the same time, nursing unions are currently balloting for industrial action if the Government reduces either pay or the various allowances or premium rates. The Government does not have the option of reducing payroll through compulsory redundancies, while the Department of Finance has already put on ice a health service plan for voluntary redundancies on cost grounds.
Up to recently it appeared that it would be any announcement of pay cuts in the Budget by the Government that would trigger strikes by public sector unions. However, it now appears that some unions are considering pre-emptive action, with dates in late November for a possible one-day stoppage being mentioned.
Either way, the Government is facing a test of its nerve through marches on the streets or on the picket lines if it wants to implement its budgetary policy as currently set out.
Martin Wall is Industry Correspondent