:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/2FICTZ3I4FJ4D7AM4VL634SQS4.jpg)
:quality(70)/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/irishtimes/406e899c-95df-4d89-b461-3544d9f99cca.png)
A strong message emanating from the Sinn Féin ardfheis last weekend was the confident belief that the party is on course to take over the reins of power after the next election. What is even more striking is that the inevitability of this development has been accepted by many commentators and even by some TDs in the Government parties.
On current trends there seems little doubt that Sinn Féin will be the biggest party in the next Dáil but it is a bit early to predict the result of an election that is probably three years away. One of the big lessons of recent political history in this country is that things can change dramatically during an election campaign.
In the run-up to February 2020, all the speculation centred on whether Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil would lead the next government. In the event the sudden Sinn Féin surge changed everything. At this stage it is impossible to know what the atmosphere will be like the next time the country goes to the polls.
The most recent Ipsos MRBI Irish Times opinion poll showed Sinn Féin at 32 per cent support, well out in front of the other major parties and a full 10 points ahead of its nearest rival, Fine Gael. If the outcome of the next election is anything like that Sinn Féin will undoubtedly be the largest party but it does not automatically mean the party will be in government.
:fill(white):background_color(white)/static.themebuilder.aws.arc.pub/irishtimes/1647534191476.png)
Translating those poll findings into likely Dáil seats is revealing. An analysis of the figures, incorporating a seat bonus for the parties similar to that obtained at the last election, gives the following outcome: Sinn Féin, 49 seats; Fine Gael, 37; Fianna Fáil, 33; the Green Party, 12; Labour, 5; and others, 24.
If the result of the next election is anything like this it means that Sinn Féin will have to get the support of at least 31 other TDs in order to lead the next government. By contrast Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will only need to find 10 other members of the Dáil to put them back in for another term.
Anti-Sinn Féin
If the Green Party manages to hold on to 12 seats, that outcome will certainly be feasible but there are other options as well. Currently the Regional Independents have nine TDs and they are solidly in the anti-Sinn Féin camp as evidenced by their support for Simon Coveney in the recent no-confidence motion.
The Government won that vote by the comfortable margin of 92 votes to 59 in spite of the fact that Labour, the Social Democrats and other left-wing groupings backed the Sinn Féin motion. While Sinn Féin will certainly be in a stronger position in the next Dáil, that vote of confidence was an indication that getting their hands on the levers of power will not be easy.
Of course, the picture will be very different if Fianna Fáil opts for a coalition with Sinn Féin next time around. On the figures cited above, the two parties would have more than 80 seats and be in a position to form a government. While some Fianna Fáil TDs appear open to that option it would represent a decisive change of direction for the party and would certainly be resisted by the present leadership.
Another factor that has to be taken into account is that a Sinn Féin surge is likely to see the party taking seats from Trotskyist parties, and probably Labour and the Social Democrats as well, so it may have few potential allies if Fianna Fáil holds its nerve and sticks to the centre ground.
Running mates
Another interesting factor will be the electoral strategy Sinn Féin adopts to win the maximum number of seats. Last time out it ran too few candidates to capitalise on its support, so the next time the pressure will be to impose running mates on many of the sitting TDs. That will have interesting consequences if the party’s vote falls short of its ambitions.
There is a widespread but mistaken assumption that the biggest party in the Dáil should automatically lead the government but this has never been the case in Irish politics. There have been a number of occasions when the biggest party was kept out of power by a combination of other parties.
The most notable case was way back in 1948 when Fianna Fáil, led by Eamon de Valera, had more than twice the number of seats obtained by Fine Gael yet the smaller party ended up leading a coalition composed of a number of parties and Independents. In 1973 Fianna Fáil won a whopping 46.2 per cent of the national vote but lost power to Fine Gael and Labour, and in the 1980s, Charles Haughey twice lost power despite winning over 45 per cent of the vote.
At this stage it is impossible to predict how far Sinn Féin’s current momentum will take it but, even on a good day, it is likely to be well short of a majority. It will only get into power if other parties are willing to facilitate it in taking control of the State for the first time.