The electorate, as ever, is discerning. It awards a ringing endorsement to the Taoiseach's personal and political leadership and, with a second stroke of the pen, moves to reject his abortion referendum. There are shades of 1959 when Mr Eamon de Valera was first elected President and voters threw out his proposal to change proportional representation.
That there is no broad national consensus to row-back on the X case by removing the threat of suicide as a grounds for limited abortion in this State is now beyond doubt. It is the conclusive finding of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. Mr Bertie Ahern may be the favourite to form the next coalition government in May but the electorate is deeply divided about diluting the X case judgment.
There is little comfort for the Government that a sound majority of 61 per cent of voters believe that the referendum should be held. People love to be asked for their opinion. Of those 61 per cent who want the referendum, 58 per cent would vote Yes and 26 per cent would vote No. Some 50 per cent of the supporters of the Progressive Democrats, 40 per cent of the Labour Party and 30 per cent of Others do not want the referendum to proceed.
With a decision to hold the referendum scheduled to come before the Cabinet in the next two weeks, the Government would do well to take stock of the main finding of the poll. The Taoiseach's referendum is in real danger of being defeated. Some 39 per cent of the electorate will vote for the referendum; 34 per cent will vote against; 21 per cent are undecided and 6 per cent will not vote. There are substantial majorities among the supporters of Fine Gael and Labour against the proposal. Even 34 per cent of Fianna Fáil and 50 per cent of PD supporters will vote No.
There are reports that a recent Fianna Fáil party poll found that 60 per cent of respondents would support the Taoiseach's referendum; only 28 per cent would oppose it . The reality, however, is that the referendum could be heading for defeat. There is an urgent need now for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, the Attorney General, Mr McDowell, and the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, to abandon this abortion referendum. For the day has come when the grand alignment of Fianna Fáil, the Catholic Church and the Pro-Life Campaign may not produce a majority in Ireland any more.