There is much greater potential for a real contest than in 2002, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
It is now a year before the expected date of the next general election. A year before the last one, the Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll put Fianna Fáil on 42 per cent, the precise support level it went on to achieve in the 2002 election.
Now, a year before the expected date of the next one, Fianna Fáil is on just 31 per cent, a whisker above the lowest rating it has achieved since this newspaper began commissioning opinion polls in the early 1980s.
A year before the last election Fine Gael was on 24 per cent and Labour 12 per cent, and they went on to secure 22 per cent and 11 per cent in the actual election.
Now they are on 28 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. They had a combined total of 36 per cent in the May 2001 opinion poll and of 33 per cent in the actual election. They have a combined total of 43 per cent now.
As the advertisers of financial products are now obliged to say, past performance is not a guide to future returns. But what we can see with certainty now is that as election campaigning gets under way, there is much greater potential for a real contest this time compared to 2002.
The Opposition, and those neutrals hoping for a gripping election campaign, should not get too carried away by these poll results. As with all opinion polls they are a snapshot of voter sentiment at a particular moment in time and they reflect the effect on voters of recent events.
For example last January's poll showed a Fianna Fáil recovery and stagnant total support for the alternative government. But that poll followed a well-received Budget as well as a Dáil recess. The Opposition says a Dáil recess always benefits the Government as it denies Opposition parties a platform from which they can project themselves into the media.
This latest poll was taken last Monday and Tuesday. On those two days voters in many parts of the State faced severe rail disruption due to industrial action by locomotive drivers.
On Monday night RTÉ's Prime Time broadcast a programme on the state of some A&E services in hospitals, drawing attention to the great hardship and distress caused to some patients by the inadequate service. Discussion and argument on this issue continued in the media through Tuesday.
Neither of the above will have improved the public view of the Government, whether or not it is fair to lay the blame for both events at its door.
Against that, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil received much highprofile soft-focused media coverage last weekend which should have benefited him. A warm and relaxed interview with Mr Ahern on RTÉ's prime-time Tubridy show was followed by extensive coverage of Mr Ahern presiding over Fianna Fáil's 80th birthday celebrations. In between came an interview in the Irish Independent in which the Taoiseach in effect announced the deferral of significant parts of the controversial programme of relocating more than 10,000 civil and public servants to areas outside Dublin.
Fine Gael has also had a high profile in recent weeks. The party ensured coverage of its ardfheis two weeks ago was dominated by tough-talking rhetoric on crime, including plans to restrict bail, electronically tag those who do get bail and put drunks arriving at hospital A&E units into "drunk tanks".
Enda Kenny received considerable media criticism for indulging in populist rhetoric. But the thing about populist rhetoric is that it is often, well, popular.
This performance may well have contributed to Fine Gael's impressive four-point rise, but such blips can be temporary.
After Pat Rabbitte raised concern over the possible threat to Irish jobs and wages by the existence of "40 million Poles", he and his party received a noticeable increase in support and approval in the last poll in January.
Both his and his party's ratings have fallen back modestly now. Labour is still at a solid 15 per cent support - they won just 11 per cent in the general election - but the episode underlines the transience of extra support gained from one-off incidents.
Those caveats out of the way, this is the first poll since 2002 which suggests that the alternative government project could have a realistic chance of success.
Fine Gael's chief election psephologist, Frank Flannery, predicted at the recent ardfheis that if Fine Gael won 26 per cent of the vote it would gain 19 seats, bringing it to 51. Labour would gain between two and five seats, he asserted, bringing it to a maximum possible 26.
One can assume he was not being conservative in his predictions. If he is right this would bring the alternative coalition to 77 seats, eight short of the bare minimum required for a majority government.
In this poll Fine Gael has not just 26 but 28 per cent. Even allowing for the fact that some of Mr Flannery's predictions could have been optimistic, this figure would indeed see substantial Fine Gael seat gains.
If one assumes that Labour can hold and possibly improve on the 15 per cent it gets in this poll, and if the Green Party wins enough seats and then agrees to join an alternative government, then it could be done.
This scenario relies on several assumptions, but the poll gives greater credibility to the prospect of an alternative than any other since 2002.
They still have a lot to do. In Dublin, where there are many Fine Gael target seats, party support lags well behind its national figure. Labour, in contrast, is showing well in the capital.
The Progressive Democrats remains unchanged at 3 per cent, with a slight drop in its core vote. However, Mary Harney's personal satisfaction rating of 34 per cent is the lowest she has ever received. Her rating in the last poll in January was 39 per cent, her second lowest ever.
Both probably are due to her brave decision to become Minister for Health in the first place, coupled with ongoing dissatisfaction over the state of the health services, particularly in the wake of last Monday's Prime Time programme on A&E.
Sinn Féin remains steady on 9 per cent, the same support it received last January. For most of the previous two years it moved between 10 and 12 per cent. It is nevertheless too early to say the party has settled into a support level lower than its peak.
The winner from this poll is the alternative government in general and Fine Gael in particular.
On these figures Enda Kenny could be set for a good, or very good, election in comparison with 2002.
Fianna Fáil, in contrast, has a long, long way to travel if it is to avert seat losses in double figures.
However, a long summer recess is to come, followed by spending estimates in November, an election budget in December, a new five-year National Development Plan expected in January, and who knows what else.
The Government's handling of these things, and the Opposition's ability to build on the idea that they really are a credible alternative, will decide what happens next year.
The winner from this poll is the alternative government in general and Fine Gael in particular
Fianna Fáil, in contrast, has a long long way to travel if it is to avert seat losses in double figuresBoth Pat Rabbitte's ratings and that of his party have fallen back modestly