Polls show signs of something stirring in the electorate

The most tantalising surveys, like this week's Irish Times/ MRBI Poll, raise as many questions as they answer.

The most tantalising surveys, like this week's Irish Times/ MRBI Poll, raise as many questions as they answer.

But to make the most of the results you must look beyond the state of the parties - two-up two-down or as-you-were - for signs of something stirring in the electorate.

The signs are there, not only in the details of the week's results, but when they're set beside those of other surveys in the Irish Times/MRBI series.

This week's poll showed satisfaction with the Government, at 51 per cent, down a point since February; Fianna Fail's support, at 46 per cent, was two points down, and Bertie Ahern's rating, at 58 per cent, 12 points down.

READ MORE

It also showed Fine Gael's support, at 24 per cent, down a point in the last three months.

Both Labour and the Progressive Democrats were up a point, with Labour at 15 per cent and the PDs at five.

With the exception of the decline in the Taoiseach's personal rating, these shifts in opinion are within the threepoint margin of error, so small as to be barely detectable.

But a longer look at the four Irish Times/MRBI polls taken during the last 12 months - in April and October 1998, February and May this year - suggests another story and poses some intriguing questions.

How, for example, does satisfaction with the Government fall from 73 per cent to 51 and support for Fianna Fail drop from 57 per cent to 46 in a year in which the economy is as promising and profitable as it has ever been?

Why does John Bruton, a successful Taoiseach and leader of a tripartite government, find himself struggling in opposition to maintain approval ratings in the mid-40s?

And what is to be made of the results from Dublin, where Labour is five points ahead of Fine Gael (22 per cent to 17) and satisfaction with Mr Ahern, at 54 per cent, is lower than in any other region?

Some Fianna Fail people brush it all aside by pointing out that the party's support is still greater than that of Fine Gael, Labour and the Progressive Democrats combined. So it is, but on present form an overall majority seems out of the question.

Others say that, what with one thing and another - by which they mean PD treachery and the begrudgery of certain commentators - last week was the worst of times for Fianna Fail.

And in a sense it was: the answers to separate questions in the Irish Times/MRBI Poll cover public reaction to the Sheedy case and to contradictory accounts of how Mr Ahern looked into Ray Burke's affairs before appointing him.

Over 70 per cent were dissatisfied with the Government's handling of the Sheedy case. Almost 80 per cent believed they hadn't been fully informed about it or about the events being examined by Mr Justice Flood.

Be that as it may, the biggest drop in satisfaction with the Government and in support for Fianna Fail didn't happen last week or, indeed, between February and May; it happened between October and February.

The Government's October figure, 68 per cent, was five points lower than the exceptional level reached with the negotiation of the Belfast Agreement in April 1998.

Between October and February satisfaction fell 16 points.

Similarly, support for Fia nna Fail, which had dropped a point between April and October, fell eight points, from 56 per cent to 48, between October and February.

And Mr Ahern's rating dropped nine points at the same time.

The political events most likely to have influenced these results were the shock-waves that followed Mr Burke's resignation, the news that Charles Haughey's tax assessment had been reduced from £2 million to zero and the questions raised by Tom Gilmartin, first for Padraig Flynn and later for Mr Ahern.

The economy was roaring ahead towards a budgetary surplus of well over £1 billion. Employment had reached 1.5 million and unemployment was falling to 100,000, as this week's figures from the Central Statistics Office showed.

But governments are rarely credited with economic success by people who must struggle to make ends meet - they are too busy struggling as a rule.

And those for whom it's always payback time seem to think they deserve all they get, with as little interference as possible from the State.

It's when things go wrong, as they did after the oil crises of the 1970s, or when there's a clear difference between the policies of the parties, that the public makes the connection between politics and the economy.

FIANNA Fail and Fine Gael have seldom differed on economic policy and, since Labour has been in government with both, those who complain of consensus and lack of choice have a point.

If Mr Ahern feels that economic success in his term has been better recognised outside the State than at home, Mr Bruton and Mr Quinn may claim that they, too, pursued the developmental policies and social partnership which brought results.

But if the parties agree on how to create wealth, there is room for disagreement on its redistribution, on how it should be used to reduce divisions and build a fairer society.

For several months, both opposition parties have seemed reluctant to make the difference clear, as if the last thing they wanted was to push the Government too hard and provoke an election.

In government, Mr Bruton's best performances were on social issues - in a strong and convincing contribution to the referendum on divorce and in the final debate with Mr Ahern on the eve of the 1997 election.

In both he presented a social democratic vision of the Republic that his partners on the left could be proud of.

In opposition he conveys an impression of stilted hesitancy, as if neither he nor his party know exactly where they stand, except on standards in public life and a view of Northern affairs broadly shared with Labour, the PDs and Mr Ahern.

As a result, he and Fine Gael have failed to profit from the openings provided by Fianna Fail's weaknesses, most notably in Dublin but also in urban areas generally - opportunities being seized by Mr Quinn and Labour.

The details of this week's poll provide an insight into the Government's troubles (and should help some of its activists to recognise that we're not making it up for our own amusement):

Twenty per cent of Fianna Fail supporters and 55 per cent of those who support the Progressive Democrats are dissatisfied with the Government.

Fourteen per cent of Fianna Fail voters and 45 per cent of Progressive Democrats are dissatisfied with Mr Ahern.

Sixty-two per cent of Fianna Fail supporters and 78 per cent of Progressive Democrat supporters are dissatisfied with the way the Government handled the Sheedy affair.

Seventy-four per cent of Fianna Fail and 85 per cent of PDs believe that they haven't been fully informed about what happened.

Sixty-seven per cent of Fianna Fail and 63 per cent of PD supporters believe the government will last the year but 22 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters and 28 per cent of PDs believe it won't.