ANALYSIS:Surprisingly to those outside politics, Cowen is far closer to his TDs than Ahern ever was writes Stephen Collins,Political Editor .
THE MANTLE of Taoiseach- in-waiting slipped smoothly on to the shoulders of Brian Cowen as he stood in for Bertie Ahern in the Dáil yesterday. He was authoritative and funny, in complete command of his troops on the Government benches, while engaging constructively with the Opposition amid some good-natured banter.
It was a side of Cowen well known to TDs on all sides in Leinster House, but not that often glimpsed in public. He has been presiding in the Dáil on Thursdays since the last election but the persona he often projected was that of a cautious, dour and sometimes grumpy politician.
Yesterday's assured performance was clearly that of a man freed from the burden of acting as the stand-in for the boss and prepared to be himself.
It demonstrated why he is so popular with the Fianna Fáil backbenchers, and why they have such confidence in his ability to lead the party.
It is no accident that Cowen is about to become the first leader of Fianna Fáil to succeed to the post by acclamation since Seán Lemass took over from Éamon de Valera in 1959. The vast majority of party TDs have great affection for Cowen, and not just because he has always been accessible, in whatever office he has occupied.
Surprisingly to those outside politics, Cowen is far closer to most of his TDs than Ahern ever was. While he has been hugely popular with the public for the past two decades, the outgoing Taoiseach has always been something of a loner in Leinster House, preferring the counsel of civil servants, political advisers and even his friends in Drumcondra, to that of his parliamentary and Cabinet colleagues.
By contrast, Cowen listens to his fellow Ministers and TDs. He is close to a number of Cabinet colleagues, particularly Brian Lenihan, Mary Coughlan and Noel Dempsey. Over the past few years he has also developed a good relationship with Micheál Martin, who was long regarded as his main rival for the leadership. The fact that Martin did not contest the position but endorsed Cowen was a testament to this rapprochement.
One of the mainsprings of Cowen's popularity with his TDs and the party organisation, is that he is quintessentially a Fianna Fáil man. The son of a Fianna Fáil TD, his whole being is bound up with the party, which is why he was an utterly loyal number two to Ahern, never seeking like Gordon Brown to push his leader aside.
His emotional trauma more than a decade ago when Albert Reynolds was forced from office was striking and he had a similar reaction when the late Brian Lenihan was sacked from the cabinet during the presidential election of 1990. Cowen's deep loyalty to the party in turn inspires devotion from those involved with it at all levels, and goes a long way to explain why his succession was inevitable.
Cowen is also a political bruiser, as he demonstrated in the general election and in Dáil exchanges since then. He can combine intelligence and belligerence to withering effect in the hot-house atmosphere of political combat. The real question, though, is whether he has the ability to lead the country as well as the party. That is something only time will tell, and there is no way either his supporters or opponents will know until he is in the job for some time.
The sceptics would say that as Minister, in a number of different departments, he has not managed to put his stamp on any of them and has too easily fallen into the habit of following the line drafted by his officials. In the Department of Finance his tenure is often compared unfavourably with that of Charlie McCreevy, who brought energy and originality to the job that often involved ignoring official advice.
Cowen has been lucky, though, getting out of the Department of Health before the ongoing problems there overwhelmed him, and moving to the more pleasant pastures of foreign affairs. Similarly, he is now leaving finance for the Taoiseach's office at a time when the storm clouds are beginning to hover over the economy.
There will undoubtedly be difficult days ahead but if Cowen can rein in his political aggression, for use only when necessary, and demonstrate the lightness of touch he showed in yesterday's Dáil exchanges, then he will quickly put his stamp on the office of Taoiseach. One of the striking things in yesterday's exchanges was the almost affectionate nature of the banter he engaged in with the Labour Party.
The Green Party TDs, who have their doubts about Cowen's commitment to the gospel of climate change, may well ponder on the prospect that if things get difficult around the Cabinet table, Cowen may try the option of an alternative coalition arrangement.
A change of partners would almost certainly guarantee the new taoiseach a second term, but whether Labour would be in the mood to underwrite Fianna Fáil at a time when difficult decisions have to be made is a moot point. In any case it is early days for such speculation, but the Greens have been put on notice that it might not be wise to push Cowen too hard.
In the meantime, the big question is what kind of cabinet Cowen will put together. For a start there is no prospect of a big clean out along the lines of the purge conducted by Reynolds when he took over from Charles Haughey.
The contrast with that change of leader is striking because now, unlike then, there are no factions in the party. It means that the new leader does not have to get rid of people he does not consider loyal to him. The reverse side of that coin is that there will be very limited opportunities for promotion for younger or less experienced TDs.
Martin's role in backing Cowen undoubtedly means that he is owed one of the glittering prizes. The most likely development is that he will be promoted to the vacancy at finance. While that will be a tough job for the Cork man, the political record shows that every Fianna Fáil taoiseach since Lemass has served first in finance, so that is the natural promotion for him.
The position of Tánaiste is likely to go to someone other than Martin and the favourites are Brian Lenihan or Mary Coughlan. Both are close to Cowen so he has to make a call on whether it would be politically more advantageous to appoint a Dubliner or a woman to the position.
As to the cabinet shuffle, Dermot Ahern is known to want out of the Department of Foreign Affairs and assuming he does not get finance he may move to enterprise and employment, with a possible promotion to Iveagh House for Noel Dempsey.
There is only one certain cabinet vacancy and possibly two if Cowen decides to make changes. Among the favourites for promotion are Dick Roche, who has put huge energy into the Lisbon Treaty referendum, Tom Kitt, who has served his time as chief whip, and Pat Carey, the impressive Minister of State with responsibility for Drugs Strategy , or the capable Minister of State with responsibility for Children Brendan Smith.