Opposition has most to fear from postponed election

INSIDE POLITICS:The likely delay in polling day opens up Opposition parties to policy scrutiny, as well as attack by the still dangerous Brian Cowen

A GREAT deal of political uncertainty has melted away with the ice over the past few days. After months of speculation and doubt about its prospects, one of the toughest budgets in history sailed through the Dáil without a hitch, as did the follow-up legislation giving effect to some of its key provisions.

Uncertainty about who would lead Fianna Fáil into the forthcoming election then disappeared as quickly as it had arisen. Brian Cowen received the endorsement of his parliamentary party on Thursday and any manoeuvring to put a new face on the poster for the election was over before anybody could take it seriously.

The only remaining doubt concerns the date of the election itself. When the Greens made their dramatic announcement about bringing the Government’s life to an end, John Gormley spoke about having a date at the end of January. Now it looks as though the country will be lucky if it goes to the polls before the end of March.

A longer timetable has clear attractions for both Coalition parties, whatever about the public. Cowen and Fianna Fáil would like to eke out every last moment in power, for the sake of pride, if nothing else. The party also has hopes that the longer the election is postponed the more likely it is that contradictions between the policies of Fine Gael and Labour can be exposed.

The Greens say they want the election sooner rather than later but they have a number of cherished items of legislation such as the climate change Bill and the ban on corporate donations that they want passed before they face the judgment of the electorate.

They are dependent on the goodwill of Fianna Fáil to get those Bills through and will find it difficult to argue with a modest delay in getting the Finance Bill past the Dáil along with their own priority items.

The Coalition could court danger, however, if it attempts to string out the process for too long. While the comfort of the majority on Budget night and since then came as a pleasant surprise to the Government (and a secret relief to the Opposition), the Coalition is dependent for its future existence on the support of Michael Lowry, Jackie Healy-Rae and Joe Behan.

Lowry and Healy-Rae have always carefully calculated the odds. Voting for the Budget made political sense for both of them, but artificially prolonging the life of a deeply unpopular government would not, so the Coalition cannot count on the indefinite support of the pair. The same is true of the somewhat unexpected support given by Behan. The Wicklow TD has been his own man since voting against the budget of October 2008 and resigning from Fianna Fáil. Since then he has voted sometimes for and sometimes against the Government on the merits of issues as they arise. He decided to back the Budget on the basis that it was the right thing to do for the country but that does not mean he will continue to back the Coalition.

If there is an attempt to postpone the election for too long the Independents could pull the plug.

Mattie McGrath’s decision to vote against the Bill cutting the minimum wage yesterday was an indication that with the discipline of the Budget removed, even dissident Fianna Fáil TDs could be tempted to vote against the Government on specific issues.

One of the features of the past week has been Brian Cowen’s reversion to a robust and more focused style of presentation both in the Dáil and in the media. His TDs were delighted to see the kind of fighting performance that turned the tide of the 2007 general election, although they are deeply disappointed that he has left it so late in the day.

It almost appears as if the decision of the Greens to call time on the Coalition has come as a relief to the Taoiseach and has freed him to become himself again. In the Dáil the surly demeanour that had characterised much of his time in office has given way to an aggressive and coherent approach to exchanges with the Opposition. That has put heart back into his own troops, who for the first time in ages pitched into the Dáil exchanges with some gusto.

Cowen’s return to fighting form may have come far too late to make much difference to his image with the electorate but it has certainly served as a tonic for his party. It has also shown the Opposition that the Taoiseach will still be a dangerous adversary in the election campaign, regardless of his standing with the electorate.

One of the notable features of the last election campaign was the way Michael McDowell demolished Gerry Adams during a television debate. The performance didn’t do anything to save McDowell or the Progressive Democrats but it did a lot of damage to Adams and Sinn Féin. This time around Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore had better beware the potential damage that Cowen could do to them.

One of the hopes on the Government side is that a long drawn-out campaign will put pressure on the Opposition to spell out their policies in detail, demonstrate that there is no real alternative to the EU-IMF plan and expose differences between them. Back in 1987, when an election was held in somewhat similar circumstances, Garret FitzGerald opted for the longest possible campaign in order to expose the lack of coherence in Charlie Haughey’s opposition to his government’s austerity budget.

In the event the long campaign didn’t save Fine Gael, but it put a big dent in Fianna Fáil. Haughey was astonished to find that he did not have an overall majority. The result was that he had to adopt the Fine Gael budget and govern for two years with the backing of the main opposition party.

This time around the long campaign ahead won’t save Fianna Fáil and the Greens from a beating, but it might have some impact on the scale of the defeat and the relative performance of the Opposition parties.