Noel Whelan: It’s the economy, stupid: why FG is on the up

The 5 per cent surge for Fine Gael in this week's Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI poll is significant. It is significant in quantum, it is significant in its timing and it is significant for what it suggests is the key factor now shaping Fine Gael's fortunes.

Fine Gael has had its national conference since the last Ipsos/MRBI poll and, as discussed here previously, that gave them the opportunity to road-test some of their key lines for the next election.

The 5 per cent jump in this poll is much more than a post-conference bounce. The Fine Gael recovery is driven by economic factors. This time last year Ireland was experiencing a statistical economic upturn: some fall in unemployment, a series of high-profile jobs announcement and a flood of positive economic indicators. However, there was no real sense of this nationwide recovery. Now, however, the economic recovery is sustained, spreading and intensifying.

The difficulty for government in Ireland and elsewhere has been that there is almost always a lengthy time lag between the onset of recovery and the general mode of relief and elation which should accompany it.

Commenting on Ireland’s last recession in the 1980s, some of our top economists say that while statistically the recovery began in 1987 and growth improved in 1988 and again in 1989, the population didn’t feel able to enjoy the recovery until Italia 90.

A similar time lag seemed set to affect this Government’s fortunes and may yet do so to an extent. However, the impressive pace of the recovery we are now experiencing means the Government’s success in managing the economy is already bearing political fruit, at least for Fine Gael.

Both the International Monetary Fund and the Economic and Social Research Institute had positive things to say about our recovery this week. It seems likely that in the 12 months or so between now and the next election, the Irish economy could grow by another 4 or 5 per cent. It also seems likely that this time next year unemployment will be about 9 per cent.

At 24 per cent in this poll, Fine Gael has only two-thirds of the vote it won in the last election. The composition of the next Dáil will still be dramatically different to the current one because of the rise of left-wing parties and independents.

Avoiding blunders

If these positive economic trends continue, however, Fine Gael could be sitting comfortably on about 30 per cent when the election campaign proper begins next spring.

In order to benefit from the economic recovery, Fine Gael needs to continue to avoid political blunders. Francis Fitzgerald has defused some of the political time bombs she inherited in the Department of Justice. Leo Varadkar has talked a good talk in Health.

The more careful handling of these traditionally troublesome departments and the avoidance of self-inflicted wounds elsewhere has cleared the space for focus on the Government’s economic success.

This week’s poll also suggests, however, that while the economic recovery is benefiting Fine Gael, it is not leading to a political recovery for the Labour Party and it seems unlikely to do so before the election. It is the curse of smaller parties in any coalition that they get most of the blame when things go wrong and little of the credit when things go right.

The best Labour can hope for in 2016 is to win something akin to their traditional vote share of 8 or 9 per cent. Labour is now hemmed in by an assertive Fine Gael on the right and squeezed by Sinn Féin, smaller left-wing parties and Independents on the left. It is no wonder that senior Labour figures like Pat Rabbitte feel the need to blame RTÉ or someone else for their difficulties.

The 2 per cent rise for Sinn Féin in this poll is within the margin of error, but is important because it shows that recent stories about the party’s handling of child abuse is having no real impact on the party’s support.

Significant

In many ways the most significant story in this week’s poll is the 4 per cent fall for Fianna Fáil. In several European countries where the parties in government at the time of the crisis were thrown out, they quickly re-emerged as the centrepiece of an alternative government. In some instances they are already back in power.

Fianna Fáil by comparison seems stuck where it was at the 2011 election at in or about 17 per cent. This is notwithstanding the collapses in both Fine Gael and Labour support in the intervening four years. With the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis taking place next month, that party’s lowly position, the reasons for it and whether it can improve are topics to which we will have to return in more detail in the coming weeks.

Twitter: @noelwhelan