NEXT MOVE, MR AHERN

When the historians come to set down the story of Ireland in these times, wilt they be obliged to identify the election of June…

When the historians come to set down the story of Ireland in these times, wilt they be obliged to identify the election of June 1997 as the point when stability and consensus were ceded for political uncertainty and incoherence? Not necessarily.

But the results of the general election are not propitious. The commending argument for the Rainbow Coalition was its proven capacity to work together, to sustain common positions on the important issues and to support conditions of social consensus. These were not inconsiderable qualities after a series of government collapses. A strong Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats government led by Mr Bertie Ahern would have carried some risks but it would not have been impossible for Mr Ahern to stamp his authority on such a combination. What has emerged offers neither of these discrete possibilities. The very strong likelihood must be that Mr Ahern will form a government with the four Progressive Democrats deputies and some Independents. Mr Ahern has indicated that he would be unwilling to seek the support of Sinn Fein's single deputy in forming a working majority in the Dail. That position must hold come what may.

Mr Ahern has wisely held his counsel for the present. He needs time to consider his strategy in securing the extra votes he needs to acquire a working majority. He has questions to resolve also with the PDs. Their diminished representation must reduce their expectations.

Fianna Fail sources suggest they may be offered one senior Cabinet seat and a junior ministry.

READ MORE

The smoke of battle is still clearing. In spite of Mr Ahern's own barnstorming campaign, Fianna Fail's share of the poll was virtually unchanged since 1992 but superb vote management maximised its ratio of seats. Proportionately, Fine. Gael had a far more impressive result, increasing its share of vote and gaining additional seats right across the State. Mr John Bruton may be vacating the office of Taoiseach but there can be little doubt that a Fianna Fail led government, made vulnerable by dependency on Independents, will face a formidable opposition whose daily object it will be to shorten the life of the 28th Dail.

The electorate has ravaged the Labour Party and to a lesser extent DL. Labour strategists protest that Dick Spring has been demonised and that he was targeted by the powerful Independent Newspapers. Yet it is doubtful if any media group could have fully mobilised the almost universal swing against Labour.

Mr Spring's volte face after the 1992 election when he entered government with a Fianna Fail which he had stigmatised as corrupt is still seen as a serious breach of faith. The party's propensity to pack its supporters and relatives into every available sinecure simply added to that perception.

What a pity. Labour's reforming instincts have permeated the outgoing Dail. Its concern for the disadvantaged has done much to improve services in health, education, social welfare and the environment. Its commitment to personal freedoms and human dignity has influenced policy in everything from divorce legislation to minority rights, to Third World involvement. There was a sense that with Labour in Cabinet the worst excesses of those who were both economically powerful and politically well connected would be kept in check. All of this contributed to the perception that Mr Bruton's Government was a fair and inclusive one which broadly reflected a shared sense of the national interest notwithstanding resentment against aspects of Labour and DL's role. The great fear in any change was that this might be lost especially in an administration with a strong PD influence. The PDs' diminution reduces that fear and improves Mr Ahern's chances of assembling a government with similar qualities. He will need skill and some luck to do so.