ANALYSIS:Noel Dempsey has set himself a daunting challenge with his 'people not cars' plan, writes Harry McGee
SOON AFTER he was appointed Minister for Transport in the summer of 2007, Noel Dempsey realised that transport policy required a radical overhaul.
For 10 years his department had been synonymous with the building of motorways and multilane carriageways. While there was a powerful argument for such infrastructure in the 1990s, by the middle of this decade, the undue reliance on this approach was beginning to have serious repercussions.
The analysis presented to him made for stark reading. An astounding 65 per cent of Irish commuters travelled to work by car. And the share of other modes of transport – rail, bus, walking and cycling - was pitiful. Ireland was quickly assuming the status of a Los Angeles in the European Union, where the car was king.
“That situation, if it were allowed to be continued, was not sustainable,” said Dempsey yesterday. “It would lead to increased congestion where average speed in urban areas during peak hours would fall to just a few kilometres an hour.”
“That kind of car dependency would lead to a loss of competitiveness, massive rises in emissions, and growing obesity in children. We just cannot go on like that.”
The analysis bore out his argument. Rising car dependency and road freight had led to a 180 per cent increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in a decade. It now made up an indefensible 28 per cent of all CO2 emissions.
The bicycle and walking had almost been abandoned as modes of transport. In 2006, only 35,000 Dubliners travelled to work by bicycle, a mere 3 per cent of all commuters.
In Copenhagen and Amsterdam, by comparison,40 per cent commute by bicycle. For children it was worse. In 2006, 55,000 students were driven or drove less than 2km to their place of education and a further 150,000 travelled less than 4km by car. The level of car dependency was seen as a contributing factor to the growing rate of obesity in children.
After 18 months and a very comprehensive public consultation – involving an impressive 500 submissions – the Minister yesterday published Smarter Travel his blueprint for a sustainable travel policy to be implemented by 2020.
The plan, as has become the norm for this Minister, is hugely ambitious. The target is a straightforward if aspirational one: to shift 500,000 people away from cars to other forms of transport such as trains, metro, trams, buses, bikes and walking, in addition to trying more sustainable approaches like car pooling, e-working and the provision of park and ride facilities at the edge of every large city.
That means a radical modal shift reducing the figures of car-dependency from 65 per cent to 45 per cent. By 2020, says the Minister, other forms will account for 55 per cent, only 11 years away.
The 60-page document encompasses some 49 steps to achieve that aim involving a budget of €4.5 billion. The broad means of implementation are spelled out but not the nitty gritty of how and what will be done.
A few are highly aspirational. The reference to electric cars making up 10 per cent of the transport fleet by 2020, for example, amounts to a profession of faith in as yet unproven technology.
There is also a fleeting reference to “carefully targeted fiscal measures”. That is code for a congestion or road-use charge as has been introduced in London. The Minister said that some form of a levy of that sort will become reality within two to three years.
Those with a more cynical cast of mind will say that many of the lofty ambitions are not achievable (or will not be approved by the Department of Finance) especially in the light of the economic downturn. However, the chill winds of recession may make sustainable travel more of a necessity than a choice. And the substantial drop in car sales this year will ease the tasks of slashing CO2 emissions from transport by 4 million tonnes by 2020 and the easing of traffic congestion.
The Minister projects a very sure confidence in his ability to make it happen. Take the heady aim of convincing 165,000 people (or 10 per cent of all commuters) to travel by bicycle by 2020, a five-fold increase on current levels. That, by any measure, will be a big ask. But Dempsey says he is serious about this. A National Cycle Policy Framework will be published within weeks. And the unbridled optimism underlining this “vision” is reflected in the confident projection: “Our universities and schools will be bursting with bicycles,” no less.
That said, the plan encountered some resistance from the Department of Finance (because of the costs involved) and from elements within the Department of Transport who believe roads are the solution to everything. Minster for Energy Eamon Ryan, who attended the launch, was not just plámásing his colleague when he said he “walks the walk”. While Dempsey’s political nous has been open to question in the past, his determination and stubbornness are not in doubt. He is convinced that the plan can succeed because he can show that the costs involved (€2 billion alone for the modal shift to bicycles) will result in commensurate gains in emission reductions, health and lifestyle benefits, falls in congestion as well as an increase in competitiveness brought on by a smooth-running transport system.
In what might be seen as unusual, the first task he has set himself has been an almost abstract one: that of changing mindsets. He says the first period is vitally important; to become involved in an exercise to get politicians, civil servants, local authorities and planners to think first and foremost about sustainable transport. The National Spatial Strategy – moribund for much of the decade – will be resuscitated.
The new Sustainable Travel and Transport Bill and the Dublin Transport Authority Act will oblige planners to create compact towns, housing estates and business parks with bicycle lanes, footpaths and reliable public transport links.
In the wake of that exercise, the investment will begin in infrastructure and systems as well as complicated co-ordination of planning, legislation and technology.
There are hundreds of improvements envisaged in the plan, all of which will need to be co-ordinated. They include integrated ticketing, real-time information for all bus commuters, bus services available 20 hours a day, smarter bus routes available seven days a week, fast-tracking of park-and-ride facilities, an all-Ireland website for car sharing; a possible revival of rail freight, a probable ending of the costly public service airline services to regional airports, more metro and trams and good quality cycle and path lanes countrywide.
The initial budget is modest, a few million euro per year. In a slight reworking of the movie Field of Dreams, the report envisages a “if you build it they will come” philosophy. To that end, Galway looks like it will be chosen as “demonstration city” to pilot many of the new initiatives, from cycle lanes, to new bus routes, to e-working.
Few will quibble that the rationale behind the report is commendable.
However, the challenge facing Dempsey is implementing his “people not cars” approach to transport policy. And that will be daunting.