Milosevic arrest could open the door for aid package to Yugoslavia

The dramatic events of the weekend in Belgrade may yet result in Slobodan Milosevic having to face an international war crimes…

The dramatic events of the weekend in Belgrade may yet result in Slobodan Milosevic having to face an international war crimes tribunal.

It is difficult not to be reminded of the arrests of Nazi leaders at the end of the second World War and their subsequent arraignment at Nuremberg. The difference is that in 1945 most world public opinion was only awakening to the reality of the Holocaust, while the atrocities of the Balkans war have unfolded in our own living rooms on the nine o'clock news.

Anyone who watched and did nothing as the evidence of torture, mass murder, rape, pillage and plunder piled up in the newspapers and on television every day cannot avoid feeling in some indirect way complicit in the crimes that were committed.

Small wonder, then, that there is a palpable feeling of relief in the air that the man known to his foes as "the Butcher of the Balkans", one of the people who brought us the vile practice of "ethnic cleansing", is at last behind bars.

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Milosevic's career is, among other things, a monument to poor strategic thinking and lack of foresight. Few leaders have lost so many wars and brought such disaster upon their people. But as a wily tactician with a good grasp of day-to-day political manoeuvring, he cannot have been unduly surprised when a move was made to arrest him late on Friday night.

The new government of Vojis lav Kostunica was under severe pressure to take action against their country's erstwhile leader. Inaction would lead to the suspension $50 million in aid from the US, and the deadline of midnight on March 31st was approaching.

The Serbian nationalism which propelled Milosevic to power in the first place is still alive. No politician likes to be unpopular, and a reluctance to move against the former president was, if not forgivable, certainly understandable. When the move finally came, it had a ham-fisted, Keystone Cops air about it.

Although details are still sketchy, we are told there were two unsuccessful attempts to make an arrest. There was a whiff of Chicago in the 1920s about the exchange of shots at the Milosevic villa and the subsequent retreat of the forces of law and order.

The former darling of the Serbian nation pulled the crowd for one last hurrah, and scores of die-hards assembled on Saturday to shout "Slobo! Slobo!" But they were not in for the long haul and, when the police returned just before dawn, Milosevic had to face them alone.

His good-humoured lawyer, Toma Fila, explained that after almost two hours of negotiations his client had agreed to go quietly.

There were unconfirmed reports that Milosevic threatened to kill himself and his family, and amateur psychologists were making much of the fact that both parents of the former president committed suicide. His daughter Marija (32) was said to have fired four or five shots before her father was taken away. She was apparently aiming at a government negotiator, but happily no one was hit and there was no retaliation.

After some initial delay, President Bush expressed confidence that the arrest would be the first step towards arraigning Milosevic before the UN War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague. A spokeswoman for the tribunal said she expected him to appear before it by the end of the year at the latest.

There was some support in Russia for their Slav brother, but by and large the international community welcomed the former president's detention.

A decision by the US on whether or not to proceed with the aid package to the Yugoslav government is expected shortly. It was conditional on a willingness to co-operate with the War Crimes Tribunal and, despite the fact that the legal proceedings will take place initially in Belgrade rather than The Hague, it will be difficult to withhold the money since the Kostunica regime at least appears to be moving in the right direction.

A lawyer by training, Milosevic could still conceivably "beat the rap". He is charged with financial corruption, not war crimes.

Under Yugoslav law he will be interrogated by an investigating judge who decides whether or not the evidence merits a trial. If he decides to proceed he can release the defendant pending trial or keep him in detention pending completion of the investigation.

Mr Fila said he saw "no chance" of getting bail for his client. If found guilty, Milosevic could be jailed for up to five years.

The more nationalist elements of the current administration will be reluctant to transfer him from Belgrade's central prison to The Hague, as even anti-Milosevic elements in Yugoslavia see the War Crimes Tribunal as a front for the US and other NATO governments which carried out the air attacks on their country.

The targets of the NATO bombing campaign have their own views about who committed war crimes. At the end of the day, though, pragmatism may rule as the final and definitive closure of the Milosevic chapter in Yugoslav history will probably be the price of becoming a fully fledged member of the international community.

The UN tribunal indicted Milosevic in connection with anti-civilian atrocities committed during his offensive against ethnic Albanians in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo. He was the first sitting head of state to be indicted for alleged war crimes.

Should he ever appear before the court in The Hague, it could be the biggest media event of its kind since the O.J. Simpson saga a few years ago. The wily fox may have a few cards up his sleeve yet. A Belgrade newspaper ran a headline yesterday, "It's finished!" - but we haven't heard the last of Slobodan Milosevic just yet.