THE ELECTION of Micheál Martin as the eighth leader of Fianna Fáil, even as Brian Cowen remains on as Taoiseach and the Finance Bill stumbles its way through the Oireachtas, has lacked that sense of excitement and ambition the party so desperately requires to improve its fortunes. A change of leader so close to an election was always going to be complicated but the extraordinary circumstances that surrounded it made the establishment of authority and impetus much more difficult.
Mr Martin is regarded as a cautious and conventional politician. A good listener and plain speaker who can quickly absorb a ministerial brief; a safe pair of hands who gets on well with colleagues. A man who commissions consultants’ reports but is reluctant to commit himself on controversial issues. After 14 years as a minister, those traits are ingrained. But they may not be what a dramatically altered Fianna Fáil will require in the aftermath of the election. He enjoys, however, a crucial advantage: the camera likes him. In this day of massive media exposure, being photogenic is a valuable political asset.
Initially, like Brian Lenihan and Mary Hanafin, Mr Martin was a reluctant challenger, believing it would be better if Mr Cowen led the party and the Government to almost certain defeat in the coming election. But circumstances, worsening opinion polls and frantic colleagues forced his hand into action. Having failed in last week’s leadership challenge because of the support offered by Mr Lenihan and Éamon Ó Cuív to the Taoiseach, he resigned from Cabinet. Not so Ms Hanafin. As a result, the Cork South Central TD was perfectly placed when Mr Cowen voluntarily offered his resignation within a matter of days.
There will be hard and difficult days ahead, before and after the election. The challenge is immense. The Government has lost so much credibility that any former minister would struggle to make headway. Existing problems will be compounded by the loss of experience within the party. Announcing his intention to retire, former taoiseach Bertie Ahern referred to a tradition that former taoisigh do not seek re-election. If that precedent is followed, Mr Cowen will become the 18th serving Fianna Fáil TD to leave national politics. His departure and that of senior colleagues will seriously weaken the party’s vote-getting powers.
While Mr Martin has a mountain to climb, Fianna Fáil has always prided itself on toughness and resilience. The latest opinion polls findings – in the mid teens – threaten annihilation. But three or four weeks remain until polling day and Mr Martin has pledged to raise the party’s vote to the mid-twenties. Such an outcome would be traumatic for a party that secured almost 42 per cent of the popular vote in 2007 but it would offer hope of recovery.
At this stage, the focus of party planners is to get ahead of Sinn Féin and recover ground lost to the Labour Party. Mr Martin’s first election as party leader will test his abilities to the utmost.