Michael McDowell, as PD leader, would have to display very different political skills, writes Mark Hennessy
Talented, even brilliant, impetuous, colourful, dynamic, rash, Michael McDowell has been one of the most interesting figures on the Irish landscape over the last two decades.
However, the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform will have to show other skills if he is survive in the leaders' club if, or when, he takes over at the helm of the Progressive Democrats.
Contrary to popular belief, McDowell is not always a loose cannon. Indeed, he can often be more of a team player - better at keeping people onside, informed and happy than outsiders would realise.
It is not yet certain if he will ascend without a challenge, and his position, assuming that he does, will be keenly affected by the manner in which he does get to the post that he has desired for years.
If he wins by acclamation, an outcome that is increasingly likely, McDowell must quickly show that he is a leader who can operate coalitions.
If not, neither the PDs nor he have a future of any kind.
On Wednesday, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern made it clear that he had a deal with Mary Harney that the Government would run its full course, and that he expected the same from her successor.
The message was interpreted as a shot across the bows of McDowell or Liz O'Donnell or Tom Parlon should they emerge triumphant, but it was just as likely to have been directed at Ahern's own backbenchers.
While McDowell is a fine political strategist, better in some ways than Harney, he has a core weakness: he can be goaded into extreme behaviour if he is abused personally.
Then serving as lord mayor of Dublin, Royston Brady got under McDowell's skin in September 2003 when he accused him of being "extremely arrogant" and using "bully-boy tactics".
In Rome, at a European Union justice ministers' meeting, McDowell went ballistic, threatening at one stage to quit unless Brady was brought to heel. Brady quickly buckled, and the crisis passed.
Ahern, who believes that the Government's stability will be a key electoral selling point, will not want any Brady-like conduct now from his backbenchers as the clock ticks down on the life of his second coalition.
Though some FF deputies are looking in the Labour Party's direction, Ahern will first want to be sure that a third deal with the PDs is not possible, if only because the PDs would receive a smaller piece of the Cabinet pie than Labour.
McDowell's ability to be part of a team was best shown during his period from 1999 as attorney general, "the family solicitor" to the Cabinet and one of the most sensitive posts in any administration.
During the period McDowell worked daily, if not hourly, with the Taoiseach, and the two quickly developed a working relationship and mutual respect despite McDowell's Ceausescu-jibe during the 2002 campaign.
Since his move to the Department of Justice, the relationship has continued, with some observers frequently commenting privately on the amount of notice that McDowell does give to the Taoiseach about fast-moving issues.
Though the Sphinx-like Ahern, who prefers to keep most of his own thoughts, is occasionally exasperated by McDowell's habit of wearing his emotions on his sleeve, he has supported him when the chips were down.
During the statutory rape crisis in May, McDowell initially misjudged the impact of the Supreme Court's judgment by initially saying that none of those jailed would be released. Ahern rowed in behind him.
Contrary again to the public image that he is a stubborn bull, McDowell has shown that he can bite the bullet and drop issues without making a public fuss when faced with open Fianna Fáil opposition, as witnessed by the cafe bars legislation.
Even more significantly, he bowed to FF's demands for privacy laws, subsequently producing legislation that he had for long said was unnecessary, could not work and which is highly disliked by the media.
Once Tánaiste, McDowell could pick fights with Ahern on a host of issues if he chooses to do so - and particularly if, as expected, the Moriarty tribunal criticises Ahern's performance as Fianna Fáil's treasurer during the Haughey era.
However such criticism would be hardly credible since he had few difficulties serving in Cabinet alongside Ahern knowing for years that the latter had given signed, blank cheques to the late Mr Haughey.
McDowell could also raise temperatures by demanding further tax cuts in the next budget, but politics has moved beyond that issue for now to one focusing on the quality of public services.
Simply put, McDowell could cut and run a thousand times before next May. But what would he do next?
He must first show the public that he can be the sober, mature individual required to be No 2 in office.
While McDowell has few around the Cabinet table that he can call close friends, most respect him, even if they also find some of his public utterances erratic or worse.
More than a few Ministers were deeply uncomfortable about his use of Department of Justice files to end journalist Frank Connolly's tenure as head of the Centre for Public Inquiry, and, shortly thereafter, the centre itself.
Few had objections to the objective, particularly the Taoiseach, who was incensed by Connolly's appointment, though Ahern would have been happier if the fingerprints had not been so visible.
McDowell's relations with Micheál Martin are poor, dating back to Martin's time in the Department of Health (they argued over how haemophiliacs left infected with hepatitis C should be compensated) while McDowell's touting of himself as the all-reforming Minister for Justice irks his predecessor, John O'Donoghue. However, none of this should be a problem unless any of them are actually spoiling for trouble.
Importantly, McDowell has oiled relations by ensuring that Cabinet colleagues receive the best of constituency attention from the Department of Justice, not something that all of them could claim about their own departments.
For now McDowell is not yet PD leader, though the signs yesterday were that he will not face an election even if Tom Parlon hinted that he might throw his hat into the ring.
If there is a race it will reopen old wounds and create new ones. Even if Parlon and former minister of state for foreign affairs Liz O'Donnell opt not to stand, both are likely to demand some price.
Each could make it clear that their acceptance of his leadership would only be for the duration of this Dáil, and that one or both of them would challenge him afterwards depending on the outcome.
Equally, one might seek to achieve advantage over the other by demanding a private pledge now of Cabinet office later, assuming that Harney is not going to be a Minister again.
One thing is certain, though; McDowell's elevation, whatever the risks, is the outcome that best guarantees the continuation of this Government because either Parlon or O'Donnell would have to join Cabinet if they won.
Such an outcome would cause too much upset in the dynamics between the two parties since Ahern has already made it clear that no more Cabinet jobs are available for the PDs.
McDowell or Harney would have to leave, while neither O'Donnell nor Parlon would want the Department of Health. No Fianna Fáil Minister would fancy moving to accommodate them.
A year out, such changes would cause fatal cracks.
