President Robert Mugabe's defeat in Zimbabwe's constitutional referendum marks a milestone in that country's political development. It also puts Mr Mugabe into the tightest corner since he came to power 20 years ago. His response to the non-binding referendum vote will have far-reaching consequences for his country's transition towards democracy.
The very fact that the majority of those who went to the polls failed to support a hitherto impregnable political leader signalled a notable change in attitudes on the part of Zimbabwe's electorate. With the economy now in a parlous state the voters felt they had little to lose by expressing no confidence in the president.
Half of Zimbabwe's workforce is unemployed; inflation is running at 60 per cent while fuel and power shortages are frequent. In the week before the referendum the government in Harare was forced to seek a controversial $135 million loan from President Thabo Mbeki's South Africa to help pay its fuel and electricity bills. Not surprisingly many voters now consider themselves worse off than they were even under British colonial rule.
A general election is due in April for a parliament in which at present all but a single seat is held by Mr Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) grouping. A meeting of ZANU-PF's central committee tomorrow will consider its response to the stunning defeat. Mr Mugabe has announced on television that he will accept the referendum result. His powers will, therefore, not be extended and the threat of sequestration of land owned by white Zimbabweans will be lifted. This alone will not be enough to satisfy a rampant opposition.
While opposition to Mr Mugabe was stronger in Harare and other urban areas, resistance to the proposals in the rural heartland of his support was strong, despite the promise of land redistribution. Granting former white-owned land to party cronies in the past appears to have destroyed trust amongst those once his most loyal electoral allies.
All this, however, does not mean that ZANU-PF will lose the April elections. Only 20 per cent of those on the electoral list bothered to vote in the referendum. Conveniently, it is believed that 25 per cent of names on that list are those of people who have already died. The inaccuracy of the register as well as almost total control of the media presents an opportunity for massive falsification that ZANU-PF may find very difficult to resist.
Assertions by Mr Mugabe's aides that the referendum was lost because of unfair intervention by Zimbabwe's white population defy belief. Whites account for a mere one per cent of the population. Even if, as is claimed, they forced their employees to vote no the numbers involved would not have been significant enough to make a major difference.
The most important factor emerging from the referendum is that Zimbabwe now has, in the form of the Movement for Democratic Change, a strong and viable opposition for the first time in many years. Faced with an electoral defeat of such magnitude many democratic leaders would have instantly resigned. Should Mr Mugabe surprise the world and decide to do so, there is now, at least, an opposition to which he can hand over power.