Liberia's future

The statistics of Liberia's civil war are a frightening reminder of how much is at stake for that country and its west African…

The statistics of Liberia's civil war are a frightening reminder of how much is at stake for that country and its west African neighbours following this week's inauguration of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf in Monrovia.

She has appealed to some 200,000 refugees to return home from Sierra Leone, Guinea, Ivory Coast and Ghana now that peace is being restored in Liberia.

During the course of the long conflict from 1989 to 2003, in which 250,000 people died, up to half of the three million population fled their homes.

Most became refugees in their own country and many have by now returned to their villages and towns. But hundreds of thousands are still displaced, including 100,000 ex-combatants, many of them child soldiers responsible for the war's greatest atrocities.

READ MORE

If they return there is the possibility of finding employment in reconstruction projects being reactivated following this week's inauguration. Many of these were suspended because of corruption; but they are desperately needed, since Liberia is without piped water or electricity, while roads, schools and health centres barely function.

Mrs Johnson Sirleaf must generate a sense of rolling achievement by tackling these problems during her first months in office. The omens are good, since her electoral opponent George Weah has conceded defeat and his supporters seem likely to work with her. Charles Taylor, the former warlord president who fled the country in 2003, is in Nigeria and due for trial on war crimes in Sierra Leone. But Mrs Johnson Sirleaf is reluctant to endorse the trial for fear of resuscitating civil war before reconstruction begins in earnest.

A report by the International Crisis Group underlines how important it is for the west African region as a whole that she succeeds. "If Liberia slides back towards instability, it will again threaten its neighbours. Everything is aligned for potential success but the situation, as shown by the post-election riots, remains fragile". Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast and Niger are all struggling to recover from civil conflict or natural disasters. The latest unrest in Ivory Coast, where an outgoing president wants UN troops to withdraw, shows the dangers involved.

So the stakes are high for Liberia and its neighbours. Mrs Johnson Sirleaf has great international and domestic goodwill. Support for her includes the force of 15,000 United Nations peacekeeping troops, with an important Irish rapid reaction group of 430 troops. She has the requisite political and administrative experience and has garnered enthusiastic support among the Liberian population. She deserves to succeed.