Let us keep fetters on Fianna Fail

Fine Gael's nervous breakdown is worrying for more than those directly concerned with the party's mental health. It could cause an outcome to the general election that very many of us would deplore and almost nobody anticipates. That is of an overall Fianna Fáil majority.

This is not quite the improbability that many "political analysts" have thought for over 20 years now. Fianna Fáil could win 84 seats or more in this election with 44 per cent of the vote and it is by no means unlikely that the party will cross that threshold, largely because of the collapse of Fine Gael.

Nobody in Fianna Fáil talks openly about this prospect for they realise that if the electorate perceives this is a probability many who would otherwise vote for Fianna Fáil will switch to other parties. Nobody in the opposition parties talks about it either for it conveys, from their perspective, defeatism.

For myself, it is not that I do not want to see Fianna Fáil back in government or Bertie Ahern Taoiseach again, it is that I don't want to see them in government on their own, unconstrained by the reins of a coalition partner, whether that be Labour or the Progressive Democrats.

Mary Harney made a good point recently when asked what would have been different since 1997 had Fianna Fáil been in government on its own. She said there would not have been some of the tribunals - I assume she was talking about the Flood tribunal and she is certainly right about that.

We would have known nothing about the vast amounts of money Ray Burke got over the years, the gigantic sums of money got by Liam Lawlor, and all the other payments to politicians about which Frank Dunlop is due to tell us.

She also said that the new legislation on what is called "corporate governance" (laws designed to keep big business honest) would not have been passed were it not for the Progressive Democrats. Again she is very probably right, for Fianna Fáil would not have thought about it, certainly would not have felt passionate about it as she did. Anyway Fianna Fáil would have been more susceptible to pressures from the business quarter than she was.

NEITHER is it likely we would have had the inquiry into the Ansbacher accounts, and although it is disappointing that we do not know the outcome of those before going to the polls, it is at least reassuring that we will know fairly soon. And, by the way, would it have been likely that Fianna Fáil, on its own, would have appointed, in the first instance, Declan Costello, to head that inquiry, and, when he became ill, Sean O'Leary? And with Fianna Fáil on its own in power, we would now have a national stadium under way, irrespective of cost.

There are good reasons for wanting Fianna Fáil back in government. Bertie Ahern has been a good Taoiseach and his handling of the Northern Ireland issue has been assured. We need more of that and, at the very least, it would be a risk to entrust Michael Noonan with that responsibility - look at the mess he made of the Hep C issue.

There are several Fianna Fáil ministers we might want back in office: Micheál Martin should be given time to deal with the health crisis; Brian Cowen has been impressive in Foreign Affairs and should be kept there; Noel Dempsey might succeed in reforming the Irish political system if given more time. There is also the fact that Fianna Fáil has more capable people than Fine Gael has (for decades it was the other way around.)

But having them on their own? No way.

State boards would be chock-a-block with Fianna Fáil appointees, instead of having a mere sizeable representation as at present. Only Fianna Fáil-inclined barristers would get on to the High Court and Supreme Court benches - only some judicial appointments are Fianna Fáil activists now. So what are we to do to keep Fianna Fáil from getting an overall majority but having them back in power with spancels on them? Unfortunately, there is no way for an individual voter to opt for this preference. If you vote for Fianna Fáil, you vote to put them in power on their own. If you don't vote Fianna Fáil, you vote not to have them in power at all.

AND THIS IS where Fine Gael's best card by far comes into play, but, unfortunately for them, they can't play it. The card involves conveying to the electorate the following message.

Michael Noonan becoming Taoiseach may be an appalling vista but there is an even more appalling vista, Fianna Fáil being in power on their own. So voters, beware of sleepwalking into the worst of all possible vistas, precisely because you and so many others want Fianna Fáil back in office, there is a real danger that by voting for that you will contribute to an outcome that you would deplore. If you could be sure that not too many other people would vote Fianna Fáil. it would be safe to do so but you can't be sure of that, especially as Fianna Fáil now seems so popular.

The only way of avoiding the first most appalling vista is to opt for the second most appalling vista, not to vote for Fianna Fáil at all, which, essentially is a vote for Michael Noonan as Taoiseach. It is the best argument I know for voting Fine Gael. If there is a better one, I haven't heard it.