The Labour Party meets this weekend, unsure about Fine Gael's viability, increasingly conscious of Sinn Féin's presence and hoping for 30 per cent more seats in the local elections in June, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
Standing on a stage in Liberty Hall in Dublin last month, the Labour Party's chief strategist, Fergus Finlay, laid out the road to the future for party members.
Dubbed "Breaking Out Of The Pack", the presentation pulled few punches: Labour has to attract audiences that it has never appealed to before.
Life under the plan would be difficult for Labour TDs, many of whom have long since seen off local competition. Running mates would be the norm, rather than the exception. "That has to change. The object is not to keep people in place until they die, but to grow the party," one senior figure told The Irish Times.
The local elections, therefore, are key if Labour is to have new, particularly young Dáil candidates ready and willing when the country next goes to the polls. Cursed with a poor age profile amongst TDs, Labour will need replacement Dáil candidates in Cork East once Joe Sherlock steps down. Equally, there could be gaps in Dublin North if Seán Ryan goes, though that is not certain, and in Carlow-Kilkenny once Séamus Pattison stands aside.
Left with 83 seats after the 1999 local elections, it hopes to add 30 per cent to that total in June, despite the loss of high-profile TDs because of the dual mandate ban.
The target is distinctly achievable, since Labour dropped 22 seats in the 1999 local elections and its opinion poll rating has improved since the election.
Nevertheless, the poll figures have become becalmed somewhat over recent months, as Fianna Fáil's slide after the 2002 general election was first stopped, and then reversed. The turnaround in Fianna Fáil's fortunes has damaged Labour confidence, particularly when matched with Fine Gael's showing in both public and private polling.
Under the current strategy set by the party leader, Pat Rabbitte, the Labour Party needs Enda Kenny and Fine Gael to thrive, or, at least, to do a lot better than it is.
Though some in the party have doubts about being tied so closely to Fine Gael, none can argue that Mr Rabbitte did not clearly lay out his stall during the election for the leadership.
Again and again, he ruled out Fianna Fáil. Since then, he has worked closely with Mr Kenny and the Green Party leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, to create a common front.
The strategy has been only partly successful, though the electorate is still three years away from a general election and is hardly concentrating on alternative governments.
Nevertheless, Mr Rabbitte's room for manoeuvre is limited by internal party factors, since Labour nerves will fray if Fine Gael does poorly in the local elections.
Clearly, Fine Gael will lose seats, since there is little prospect that it can repeat its extraordinary 1999 showing when it won 32 per cent of the seats with 28 per cent of the vote. The question is how many, and can FG's local election result be shrouded in better news on the European Parliament elections' front?
If not, the debate within Labour about coalition options will open, particularly since a party conference, not the leader, decides on such choices.
Most within the party seem ready to wait and see, but opposition is present and it is not just confined "to the usual whingers", as some party leadership figures would suggest.
Despite Fianna Fáil's better showing, Labour is banking on its belief, supported by polling, that there is an "Anybody But Fianna Fáil" vote to be harvested.
"They won't get as many transfers next time because more people distrust them than ever," Mr Finlay told The Irish Times.
During the last year, Labour has scored well on a number of fronts, particularly on Iraq where Mr Rabbitte and Michael D Higgins have landed punches on the Government.
Still dominating the headlines, Iraq will form a key part of Mr Rabbitte's opening conference speech, while the former British Cabinet minister, Robin Cook will speak on Saturday.
Given his own west of Ireland background, Mr Rabbitte has been genuinely infuriated by the Government's lack of help for Irish emigrants living on hard times.
His interest in the subject has led to front page stories in emigrant papers in New York, London and Australia: "Some of that will feed back home," said one party figure.
Echoing this theme, Father Paul Byrne, former director of the Irish Episcopal Commission, will on Saturday be given the James Larkin "Thirst for Justice" award for his work with emigrants in the UK.
The issue offers stark imagery of a generation "left beaten and broken by the blows of life" that will be heavily exploited by Labour in coming months.
Under a plan drawn up by government-appointed experts, emigrants would have received €15 million in aid this year."That is the same money that went on Punchestown. That shows the way in which this Government has become out of touch. Fianna Fáil would never have made that mistake in the first term of office," said a Labour figure.
However, Fianna Fáil has not made the same mistake on its proposed citizenship referendum, most Labour TDs concede reluctantly. "It would win here by a landslide. That is why Fianna Fáil is doing it. And everybody knows it," says Labour Cork North Central TD, Kathleen Lynch.
So far, Labour has criticised the Government's plans for the holding of the referendum, more so than the substance of the issue itself. Mr Rabbitte would find it difficult to get the party's National Executive Council to support the referendum, and, equally, would find it difficult to get Labour TDs to oppose it.
The danger is that both he and the party could fall between two stools, or take a stand in line with Labour's traditional values and lose out to Fianna Fáil's populism. Though he will, no doubt, seek to find a way around this problem in his speech tonight, the Labour leader will pull punches elsewhere. In a succession of speeches, he has told public sector workers, with varying levels of clarity, that they will have to meet higher standards, and, perhaps, no longer work for the State.
However, this issue has become more polarised in recent months as the Government encounters trade unions' opposition to CIÉ and Aer Rianta reforms.
Faced with this, Mr Rabbitte will slide past the issue, concentrating instead on mainstream local election fare: housing, traffic jams, etc. Throughout the last year, Mr Rabbitte has consistently performed well in the Dáil chamber, usually, but not always, overshadowing Enda Kenny.
However, the Dáil is not what it was: "Politics is changing fundamentally. Dáil work doesn't get the coverage it used to," said Michael D Higgins. Such changes will force Mr Rabbitte, probably the most parliamentary of all senior politicians of today, out onto the highways and by-ways even more so than he is doing already.
Meanwhile, there is the issue of Sinn Féin. Here, opinions divide sharply. Some feel that nothing is being done to counter SF. Others believe the threat has been exaggerated.
"We are being outflanked by them and we don't seem to be doing anything about it. I get it on doorways more and more, 'We're voting for SF'," complained one TD.
However, Sinn Féin is still only running about two dozen candidates in the four Dublin local authority areas: "They'll make some gains in Dublin, but that's it. The SF presence over the country is patchy.
"In most places they don't have any organisation and they are running pretty awful candidates in many of the places where they are.
"Everybody keeps saying that they are really active on the ground. They're not. And we know that they are not. People need to get a grip," said a key Labour official.