Iran's response to the demand that it abandon its nuclear enrichment programme appears to have all the classical ambiguity and nuance traditionally characteristic of the country's diplomacy. While, according to diplomatic sources, appearing to have reiterated its insistence on its "right" to enrich fuel for peaceful nuclear power, Iran is suggesting it may be willing to put that right on hold in the course of talks that it hopes will begin immediately.
Its chief nuclear negotiator has promised to play a "constructive" role regarding all the issues in a package on offer from the European Union, United States, Russia and China.
Iran's tactics are designed to divide the five members of the UN Security Council plus Germany which called for the halt to its programme. The US and Britain can be expected to argue strongly for immediate sanctions but Russia and China, while frustrated with Iran's behaviour, are less enthusiastic about sanctions, a reluctance which might be related to their lucrative trade relationships with Tehran. In addition, Iran is counting on, and perhaps overestimating, a French and German unwillingness for confrontation; it has said in the past that it would welcome nuclear discussions with "European allies" while criticising the US for trying to disrupt any such discussions.
Iran has argued consistently that it is entitled, under existing international treaties, to enrich uranium and has stressed it will use the refined product and technology only for the production of electricity. The fear, however, is that Iran wants more. The six nations offered Iran economic incentives and a promise to assist in the development of a peaceful nuclear programme but the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, insisted that Iran must first prove that it has no military applications in mind for its enrichment. This, Iran has refused to do.
Iran's hand has undoubtedly been strengthened by the success of Hizbullah, which it finances and arms, in surviving the Israeli onslaught. Last Sunday, Iran fired off 10 short-range missiles as part of military exercises and, in case the message was not clear enough, a senior cleric warned the US, "having learnt its lesson in Lebanon", not to get involved in another conflict in the region.
But the regime in Tehran knows well that most western nations are determined to do whatever is necessary to prevent it building a nuclear arsenal. Its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has stated repeatedly that Israel has no right to exist and, while there may be some playing to the gallery in his comments, Israel cannot be expected to entertain the fact of a nuclear-armed Iran. Neither will its neighbours, Saudi Arabia in particular, tolerate the regional instability inherent in such a development. The UN set a reasonable deadline of August 31st which should not be altered by much unless talks quickly indicate that Iran is, after all, prepared to co-operate. If Iran indicates otherwise then tough sanctions would be fully justified.