The end of an era in German and European politics is heralded by the defeat of Dr Helmut Kohl's Christian Democrats and the victory of his Social Democrat opponents in yesterday's parliamentary elections. Despite the rhetoric of policy continuity in which the transition is expressed there should be no doubting the generational and policy change involved. At this writing it looks as if a Social Democrat-Green coalition is the most likely outcome of the electoral contest. That, not a grand alliance between the two big parties, would best represent the spirit animating yesterday's result.
Dr Kohl's departure after 16 years in power, the longest-serving chancellor since Bismarck, underlines the central role of Germany and his leadership over a crucial period of history. He presided over German unification and anchored the new sovereign political entity within a stronger and more ambitious European Union. Significantly, that major achievement looks certain to stand firm after his departure. This election was notable for the basic agreement on foreign policy matters between the main parties, which is none the less important for that. Dr Kohl's main legacy will probably be seen as having successfully anchored German national interests in such a European framework, making this seem a normal state of affairs at a time when events could readily have forged a different outcome.
His failure to deliver on the domestic political agenda, in which unemployment and welfare reform loomed largest in voters' minds, was clearly his downfall. The late surge of support he predicted simply failed to materialise. Voters opted for an alternative means of ensuring their priorities are addressed. With Mr Gerhard Schroder they have chosen a rhetoric of domestic modernisation and reform and a basic continuity in foreign policy orientations. It is a formula for which their fellow Europeans have much to be grateful.
It may suit Mr Schroder to hold out the possibility of a grand alliance between the two big parties as he negotiates with the Greens in coming days. But he and his party would be in a much better position to implement their policies in coalition with the environmentalists - and better able also to find places for his own colleagues in power. A grand coalition would certainly be able to tackle the structural reforms necessary to make the German economy more competitive; but paradoxically it would be vulnerable to political competition liable to lead to another election. In the meantime extremist parties on the left and right would gain in influence. A Social Democrat-Green coalition would have better room for tactical manoeuvre. It would also make for a more interesting and enlivening period in European politics.
Their own particular history has made German voters especially reluctant to contemplate radical electoral change. They much prefer to see convergence and continuity of policy. This made for a dull campaign, in which Mr Schroder's claim to have recaptured the centre ground for the Social Democrats sounds conservative as well as radical. It remains to be seen whether it is simply vacuous or whether it will be possible now that the voting has been done to find a government capable of decisive leadership. The clear message from German voters is that this is what they want and that Dr Kohl could not provide it. It will now be up to Mr Schroder to deliver on that potential.