Fianna Fáil knows defeat is inevitable and an early election could be the best thing for the State. But is it best for the party? asks STEPHEN COLLINS
THE POLITICAL world is holding its breath as people on all sides try to assess the fallout from Brian Cowen’s most difficult week in office. It is still difficult to judge what the ultimate consequences will be, but the Taoiseach’s leadership is now on the line and the silence from many of his own TDs could be ominous.
Cowen has gone through difficult times before in his 2½ years as Taoiseach. The Lisbon Treaty referendum defeat and its aftermath was a dreadful experience. The near collapse of the banking system and the implosion in the public finances also took a huge toll.
What makes the events of the past week so damaging for him is that they were entirely of his own making and have nothing to do with political or economic forces outside his control. That has put the issue of his leadership squarely at the centre of political debate.
Cabinet colleagues and fellow members of the parliamentary party were already well aware that Cowen had difficulty relating to the public before the events of last Tuesday. Strangely, that did not manifest itself before he became party leader. In the period between the last election and his accession to the leadership, Irish Timesopinion polls showed him with a higher satisfaction rating than Bertie Ahern.
In the first poll after he took over as Taoiseach, a healthy 52 per cent of voters expressed satisfaction with how he was doing the job. Within six months, though, his rating plummeted, and it has never recovered.
The obvious explanation for this is the onset of the crisis in the public finances and the banks which has transformed the country’s economy and the public mood along with it, but that doesn’t completely account for the level of disillusionment with Cowen.
What has undermined him is an inability to inspire a frightened electorate with a sense of common purpose in the face of adversity. His own role as minister for finance in the years leading up to the crisis seems to have eroded his own self-belief, and that, in turn, has damaged his capacity to lead the country through the darkest days it has faced in decades.
What was so damaging about the Morning Ireland interview was not the content of what was said but the focus it put on the partying of the night before.
What would have been perfectly acceptable in normal times became an issue because it gave the impression of fiddling while Rome burned.
Most of his TDs didn’t need the radio performance to alert them to the fact that Cowen’s style of leadership is an issue. The question is what, if anything, they will do about it.
Some of Cowen’s Cabinet colleagues are only too well aware that the standing of the leader will be crucial in determining whether Fianna Fáil suffers a meltdown in the next election or can come out of it with a respectable defeat.
There have been whispers in the corridors of power suggesting that the best option at this stage would be for Cowen to step down and hand over to a new leader who could bring the party through a general election campaign.
Even if the Taoiseach was willing to go along with that approach, it is not clear who that new leader might be.
The obvious alternative is Brian Lenihan but the country knows he is dealing with a serious illness. Some TDs believe that should not inhibit Lenihan from taking over the leadership.
They reckon he has the best chance of convincing the public during an election campaign that Fianna Fáil has responded to the crisis in the best long-term interests of the country.
The other alternative is Micheál Martin, whose standing has risen in the party after an impressive performance during the second Lisbon Treaty referendum. Still, while his tenure at the Department of Foreign Affairs has been a success, his reputation for prevarication as minister for health is still a problem for him.
One of the difficulties about installing a new leader is that it would almost certainly precipitate a general election in the near future. Former minister Mary O’Rourke focused on this issue in her assessment of the current situation. “Anyone who sees fit to put themselves forward is hurtling us into the unknown and hurtling us into a general election.”
A strong argument could be made, however, that an early general election is the best option for the country – and even for Fianna Fáil – while the longer it is deferred, the worse things will be for both. That is something TDs will have to weigh up very carefully. Against the argument that turkeys don’t vote for Christmas is the assessment that a significant number of them might escape the axe if they make a run for it at the right time.
Fianna Fáil TDs believe that defeat is inevitable. The only question is whether it will be a rout that could put the party out of office for at least a decade, or an honourable defeat that would allow it to regroup on the Opposition benches. If they could be sure of survival, most Fianna Fáil TDs would relish the prospect of watching how Fine Gael and Labour manage to grapple with the awful extent of the economic and financial mess the country is in.
If it becomes clear that there is not going to be any move at the top for change, backbench Fianna Fáil TDs will have to decide whether to take the initiative.
Cowen still has a loyal following in the parliamentary party and even those who regard his leadership as a problem have considerable affection for him.
A motion of no confidence in the leader would require the signature of at least 18 TDs before it could be put to a vote of the 70 deputies who currently make up the parliamentary party. There is a deep reluctance to go down this road and most TDs would prefer to wait and see if “events” can resolve the issue for them.