Fianna Fáil will be well placed to secure an overall Dáil majority if the voting pattern identified in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll is repeated in next Friday's general election. In the two-week period since the previous survey, support for Fianna Fáil has remained unchanged while Fine Gael, as the lead party for an alternative government, has lost ground. At this stage - barring some cataclysmic development - Fianna Fáil will form the next government in either a majority or minority capacity.
In a meticulously planned and managed campaign, the main Government party has successfully overturned a traditional pattern that saw support for Fianna Fáil decline by up to five points once an election was called. On this occasion, its core vote has held solid at 39 per cent and when the "don't knows" are excluded, support for the party rises to 45 per cent. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and party managers have argued that, even with this high level of support, the party would not win an overall majority. And there are precedents to show the party breaking the 45 per cent barrier and being denied a Dáil majority. But those elections took place in very different circumstances, where Fine Gael was stronger or had arranged a voting pact with the Labour Party. On this occasion, the lack of voting pacts and the high level of support going to independent candidates and the smaller parties places Fianna Fáil in a position to benefit disproportionately from early eliminations and vote transfers, which could give it the last seat in many constituencies.
Fine Gael will be deeply disappointed by the poll results which shows support for the party to have declined by two points. At a time when party activists had hoped to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction with the quality of health services and shortcomings in relation to housing and law-and-order issues, they have lost momentum. The worsening state of the Government's finances has also failed to swing public support in their direction. Instead, voters have drifted towards Sinn Féin and independent candidates, giving a wide berth to the notion of a Fine Gael-led government. Rather than seeking an alternative, voters have gravitated towards a continuation of the existing arrangement and the satisfaction rating of the Government has climbed by 4 points, to 61 per cent.
While support for Fianna Fáil is at its highest level for three election campaigns, only 17 per cent of those surveyed wish to see the party form a majority government. The preferred choice is a repeat of the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats coalition and this factor may influence voters on polling day. Support for the Labour Party has remained unchanged. And while extra seats are likely to be secured, particularly in Dublin, the party is unlikely to form part of the next government.
Sinn Féin continues to make progress and Mr Gerry Adams' aspiration to win three Dáil seats may prove to be deliberately modest. Support for the Green Party is static. Independent candidates will do well and, should Fianna Fáil require external support, it is likely to be forthcoming.