FF meets amid the prospect of another term in power

Inside politics: As delegates gather in Dublin today for the 70th Fianna Fáil Ardfheis, the mood in the party is one of unbounded optimism about the prospect of another term in power. With just about six months to go to the election, the party's poll ratings have taken a sudden leap, the Taoiseach has emerged from the payments controversy with his popularity apparently enhanced and there are billions in the budget kitty to be dispensed in a month's time.

Fianna Fáil TDs are thrilled to find themselves in the kind of positive position they would not have dared to dream about in the days before the Dáil resumed at the end of September. Whatever they say now, many were badly rattled in the early stages of the payments controversy, as they sought to come to terms with the fact that their leader had accepted large sums of money for his personal use while he was minister for finance in the early 1990s.

Some are still scratching their heads and wondering how the bounce happened, while the cautious ones wonder if it will last all the way to election day.

"There is no doubt that Bertie has benefited from a wave of sympathy. My only worry is that something that developed so quickly could fade equally as fast, but I'm not complaining, as it's a good position to be in," one experienced TD said.

While many in Fianna Fáil are finding it hard to disguise their confidence about winning a third term in a row, the theme for the ardfheis, "A Fairer, Stronger Ireland", demonstrates that the party has taken heed of Opposition criticism over the past two years. "The Fair Society" has been the slogan of Fine Gael and Labour since the Mullingar accord of 2004 and its adoption by Fianna Fáil shows that it clearly has struck a chord with voters.

"In the coming months we will finish the job the Irish people gave us to do in 2002. We have ambitious plans to build the fairer, stronger Ireland the Irish people have worked so hard to achieve," says Mr Ahern in his introduction to today's programme of events. The budget will represent a glorious opportunity for Fianna Fáil to try to occupy the ground which has clearly been identified as the weak point in the party's flank.

When it comes to the actual election campaign Fianna Fáil will, as always, pull out all the stops. The Taoiseach is already in full campaign mode and he urged his followers on to similar endeavours. "Politics is not about percentages. It is about people. Every single Irish person must be met and persuaded. We have to canvass in every community and on every doorstep."

Mr Ahern himself must have shaken hands with a substantial proportion of the Irish electorate in his endless round of constituency tours over the past 10 years and he is still at it with the same boundless enthusiasm for campaigning. Matching that effort will be a huge test for the Opposition and for Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, in particular.

Fianna Fáil's ability to sustain its recovery will be enhanced if the Opposition parties don't manage to shake off the pall of gloom which has been hanging over them for the past week as the poll trend was confirmed. After two years of growing optimism that power was within their grasp, Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte now have to contend with a serious setback at a critical time in the run-up to the election.

"Fianna Fáil had 10 bad polls in a row but they didn't panic. We have had three bad ones in close succession and you would think it was the end of the world. Unless we snap out of it quickly we haven't a chance," one Fine Gael election candidate said.

Calm heads on the Opposition benches recall that six months before the European and local elections of 2004 nobody gave them a chance of putting a dent in Fianna Fáil. The media speculated that Fine Gael would be reduced to just one or two seats in the European Parliament and their prospects in the local elections were rated equally badly. In the event Fine Gael passed out Fianna Fáil in Europe for the first time and came close to catching the bigger party in terms of council seats.

What many people on both Government and Opposition benches are overlooking is that while Fianna Fáil has certainly recovered ground in the recent spate of positive polls, the party is still well off the kind of support levels it achieved routinely in the year before the last general election. While the 39 per cent achieved by the party in last month's TNS/mrbi poll in The Irish Times represented a very positive eight- point recovery since May, it is still below the last general election performance.

Even if the party claws all the way back up to the 41 per cent it achieved in 2002 there is no guarantee it will win anything like the 81 seats achieved then with an enormous seat bonus. If the Fine Gael/Labour pact results in good transfers things will become much tighter, even with small shifts in the national vote for the major parties.

The other truism that politicians ignore at their peril is that unforeseen events have a habit of spoiling the best laid plans.

For instance the Taoiseach has placed enormous store in finally getting a resolution to the impasse in the North. After St Andrews things looked very positive and plans were being made for a referendum in the Republic which would have teed Mr Ahern up nicely for election. This weekend the prospects for agreement are again looking gloomy and, in any case, a referendum looks unlikely even if there is agreement.

The election is still there to be won and lost although at this stage Fianna Fáil is clearly in pole position. For the party's 70th ardfheis in the year it celebrates its 80th birthday things could hardly be better.