FF left wondering whether Bertie is the most devious

Inside Politics: The Taoiseach always manages to create drama, disillusionment and talk of crisis out of his reshuffles, be they big or small.

What was a minor political restructuring turned into a story that rumbled along for two months, kept the Fianna Fáil backbenchers on tenterhooks and then dominated the headlines for almost a week.

Fianna Fáil backbenchers were left to wonder once again whether their leader is "the most cunning, the most devious of them all," as Charles Haughey famously said, or whether he is simply a procrastinator who always delays a decision until the last moment.

It is difficult to read some ingenious political manoeuvre into his decision to appoint Meath TD Mary Wallace to the junior ministerial vacancy created by the resignation of Ivor Callely in the first week of December. The over-long delay in filling the post created expectations across the Fianna Fáil backbenches which were cruelly dashed with the announcement on Tuesday.

Of course there was just one vacancy and it was going to be impossible to satisfy expectations. However, the Taoiseach could have filled the position in a way that would have at least appeared logical to the disappointed TDs and assuaged their disappointment. Instead, he made a decision that most of them regard as inexplicable.

If Seán Haughey, who was most widely tipped for the post, had been appointed, nobody would have grumbled.

He is widely respected in Leinster House for the way he goes about the business of politics and, more particularly, for the dignified way he had coped with the political disgrace which befell his father.

On a purely practical level he is also a TD in a vulnerable constituency for Fianna Fáil where the party faces a real battle to hold on to its two seats at the next election.

Dublin North Central lost a seat in the boundary reshuffle so one of the four outgoing TDs has to lose his seat. If the conventional wisdom about the appointment of Ms Wallace is that it will help her to bring in a running-mate, the same logic should apply more strongly to helping a sitting TD hold on to his seat.

If the Taoiseach felt that it could damage the party's long-term interests to bring a Haughey back to prominence in Fianna Fáil, he could have appointed Pat Carey from Dublin North West or Jim Glennon from Dublin North. Pat Carey, one of the most impressive members of Dáil Éireann, is another TD in a vulnerable three-seater and he certainly could have done with the boost.

Jim Glennon, although he is in his first term as a TD, has shown himself to be an impressive performer and promotion could have helped him to bring in a running mate and retain two seats in Dublin North.

By going outside Dublin the Taoiseach created a whole new category of people who feel disappointed and disillusioned.

Gender balance was one of the reasons cited for the appointment of Ms Wallace but that could equally have applied to Cecelia Keaveney in Donegal North East, another TD who will be battling to keep two seats for the party in a tight constituency.

The logic that was applied by the Taoiseach to the appointment of Ms Wallace also applies to most other constituencies in the country. The problem Mr Ahern has created is that he has sent a signal that hard work and/or ability do not count when it comes to promotion. If it was a TD from the north side of Dublin everybody else could at least have accepted it as logical but, as it is, they are simply bewildered.

With a little over a year to go to a general election, the impact on morale in the parliamentary party has been negative. Mr Haughey's announcement that he is going to reflect on his future in politics was an indication of the mood on the back benches. There are others who privately feel like saying something similar but politics being the drug it is, they will give it another go in the hope of finally making the cut next time around.

The interesting thing about Mr Haughey's announcement was that it was followed by a clear signal from the Taoiseach that he will be seeking a replacement for Síle de Valera before the end of the current Dáil term.

That would be an ideal opportunity to make it up to Mr Haughey but whether it makes sense in purely electoral terms any longer is a moot point. All the evidence suggests that there has been a wave of sympathy for Mr Haughey since the announcement.

If he is promoted later in the year that electoral advantage could be dissipated. The other side of that coin is that given the level of support for Mr Haughey's promotion expressed by voters in Dublin and by the media, there will be no criticism of the Taoiseach if he does give him promotion later in the year. "If Bertie had promoted Seán this week there would certainly have been some criticism in the media and references to the Haughey factor would have been dredged up again. Now that the media is campaigning for his promotion, the Taoiseach has the perfect opening to appoint Seán to ministerial office," said one Fianna Fáil TD.

It will be no surprise if Ms de Valera announces her decision to step down just before the Dáil summer recess. Going on form, Mr Ahern will then postpone making a decision on a replacement until the Dáil comes back from its three-month break in October.

That will keep all the backbenchers on their best behaviour with each of them hoping that it is finally their turn. Nobody can be sure what the Taoiseach will ultimately do. Whether that represents deviousness or indecision is anybody's guess but he runs the risk of turning many of his TDs into nervous wrecks.