There comes a stage at the end of a government's term in office when electoral considerations take over from the need to develop and renew policy making. That point has clearly been reached by Mr John Major's government in London. It was evident in the failure to register any progress at the Anglo Irish discussions between Mr Bruton and Mr Major yesterday.
Those directly concerned have apparently reached the conclusion that nothing of substance is likely to be achieved before an election. It is very much to be hoped that Sinn Fein and the IRA are capable of reaching the same conclusion. Will they be able to discipline themselves to await the outcome of the democratic process rather than resort to a renewed campaign of violence? Whatever one makes of the continuing disagreements between the two governments over the terms and conditions for Sinn Fein entering the talks - and they are real and important disagreements - the ball is still very much in the paramilitary court so far as this is concerned.
Mr Bruton made much yesterday of the pressing need for a ceasefire. Now that electoral considerations have become so overwhelming, and with more and more evidence daily of Mr Major's precarious parliamentary position, it is all the more important that these lessons be absorbed. A Sinn Fein that aspires to do well in the election could hardly expect to do so on the back of another round of IRA violence, even if the ceasefire is not restored in the meantime.
If there is to be a relatively long gape months not weeks - before any more progress is made in getting inclusive talks going, as seems to be indicated by the electoral timetable, this is going to be a demanding and difficult period for all concerned. There will be many opportunities for political sabotage and obstruction. This can come just as readily from the diehard unionist as from the diehard republican side of the argument.
There will be many on the unionist side, notably those who follow an integrationist line, who will be happy to reinforce a refusal to get involved in any negotiations with Sinn Fein. There will also be opportunities to join such a unionism with a Conservative line of opposition to further European integration, such as is suggested in the Government's draft outline for treaty revisions.
Mr Major has steadfastly and honourably refused to be drawn into a categorical rejection of monetary union on the grounds that this would damage Britain's interests at a critical juncture in European history. His stance means that he has little interest in coming to Dublin for the weekend European Council determined on a confrontational course and looking for simple electoral advantage. This would simply increase his country's isolation in the European Union. It now looks as if such a confrontation will be put off until the European Council in Amsterdam next June, where it is likely that Britain will be represented by a different government.
There can be no certainty in politics and it is impossible to say whether this would ease the way towards a more inclusive Northern Ireland talks process. It therefore behoves all concerned to read the political circumstances in Britain intelligently and not to draw false conclusions from a meeting whose outcome was determined above all by the impending election.