So be it. The Belfast Agreement has reached crisis point following Mr David Trimble's decision to lead all five Unionist Ministers out of the Northern Ireland Executive from midnight yesterday. The political institutions will - and arguably should - be allowed to collapse in seven days if the IRA will not begin the process of actually decommissioning its arms. The democratic parties of this island, North and South, with a mandate in concurrent referendums, legitimately ask whether they have been duped. Was the whole political project based on the false premise that one party could sit in government with a private army at its back? There can be no fudging or prevaricating on this central question any longer. The word-play has run its course. The two-handed approach has to end.
The Taoiseach, the Prime Minister, Mr Cowen and Dr Reid, Mr Trimble and the SDLP leader-in-waiting, Mr Durkan, profess themselves to be disappointed with the latest development. But not surprised. This crisis has been a long time coming but after the terrorist attacks on America on September 11th - more than Mr Trimble's threat to withdraw his Ministers - there is no longer any choice. There is a universal demand, from the governments and all parties, that the IRA must make a meaningful and verifiable gesture to put arms beyond use. Mr Gerry Adams believes this places a bigger demand on the republican movement than the delivery of the first ceasefire. To most people, however, it would seem no more than the logical conclusion to the commitment made by the IRA a full eighteen months ago to put its arms beyond use in an independent way and begin implementing the decommissioning scheme which it put before General de Chastelain last August.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, said yesterday that the withdrawal of the Unionist Ministers from the Executive "is regrettable but not irrevocable". His counterpart, Dr Reid, stated that there is a huge opportunity now to settle the outstanding issues in the peace process. The plan is that the political institutions will be suspended indefinitely within a week or so. There will be no final six-week reprieve.
For all of that, there is a sense that, for the first time since the IRA cessation, that organisation is considering taking some action on arms. The leadership of Sinn FΘin is simultaneously dampening and raising expectations. The two governments claim that they are hopeful. They admit to frantic consultations within the republican movement in a way not witnessed before. But they concede that, so far, they know of no decision to decommission.
There can be a further diminution in military installations when the security threat recedes. There is a promise from the two governments to guarantee the stability of the institutions. In the view of most fair-minded people, the context, so often mentioned by Sinn FΘin, has been created. We are now entering the endgame.