It is odds on that 2024 will be declared the warmest year on record – the first calendar year when temperatures rose to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. There is little comfort in knowing this does not represent a breach of the critical Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degrees, which refers to a long-term average over decades. This is because unprecedented warmth across the planet combined with heat spikes, which were prevalent in Europe this year, point to the unsettling possibility that global warming is accelerating faster than predicted and the planet’s climate is behaving differently than expected.
Ireland may escape catastrophic impacts but be faced with more erratic climatic conditions, especially much-altered rainfall patterns that threaten food production. More aggressive weather systems and related storm surges, combined with incessant sea-level rises, are likely to make our major cities and communities, already wrestling with coastal erosion, more vulnerable.
Extreme weather events exacerbated by human-induced warming are increasingly recognised by politicians and policymakers. Yet their collective response is usually marked by delay and poor delivery. That lesson was learned in Valencia when a severe flood in October caused the deaths of more than 200 people – the worst natural disaster in modern Spanish history.
Despite that devastation, the general election in Ireland took place inside a bubble, when a calamity with fundamental implications for society and the economy was relegated to a side issue by the three largest parties. For Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, part of the outgoing government, this may have seemed like an astute reading of the public mood, but it bordered on environmental recklessness. With the Greens, they had put in place a framework for rapid decarbonisation of the economy, but they backed off detailing what needs to be done now, which is ominous given what is to come. Instead, a strategy of isolating the smaller coalition partner, pointing the finger of blame for cost-of-living impacts and falsely accusing it of being “anti-rural” was pursued.
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Irish citizens deserve more honesty on what has to be endured before accruing substantial benefits from a healthy environment. They need to be told how the State is preparing for what is expected, including minimising risk of a collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), which could blunt the beneficial warming from the ocean current on northwest Europe.
Significant progress is indisputable; a 6.8 per cent reduction in overall emissions in 2023 and an 8.3 per cent reduction in energy-related emissions. The State, however, is being forced into hard choices by years of tardiness. The next programme for government must be bolstered by decisive actions including adjustments to carbon budgets or Ireland will in time face escalating costs. Buying credits for failing to meet emissions targets could cost €20 billion alone by 2030. In addition, the State must phase out harmful fossil fuels as early as 2039, the Climate Change Advisory Council has recommended, or face “profound (additional) costs to the Irish economy and to the people of Ireland”.
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland has called for energy use in carbon-intensive sectors to be strategically slowed, while deployment of more renewable energy, as well as energy efficiency technologies and practices, is accelerated. It says this requires “bold, courageous leadership from across government, business and citizens to achieve this, but it can be done”. Separately, escalating growth in electricity demand from data centres risks making climate targets unachievable. Reconciling those targets and future pathways for data centres and large energy users will be extremely challenging.
The in-tray gets even more difficult as Ireland remains highly dependent on imported fossil fuels despite record use of renewables. Emissions may exceed sectoral ceilings in the 2021-2025 carbon budget and any overshoot is carried over, requiring even more demanding measures.
Delivering Ireland’s climate targets is not simply about more renewables, more EVs and more infrastructure. It also requires doing less; less consumption, less demand and less expansion of some sectors.
Donald Trump’s re-election in the US has fuelled geopolitical uncertainty. This led to a weak outcome to global climate negotiations at Cop29. But there is another side to the picture, too: the global surge in green power and the economic opportunities this brings.
The climate " delayers” at the heart of the political system risk letting significant economic opportunity slip past, as well as not acting to head off future costs and risks.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael can start to redeem themselves by building on tangible progress, deploying proven solutions in tandem with a just transition. They can provide realistic hope to a growing majority wanting bolder climate action. The new government could, if it had the will, ensure a positive tipping point is reached. But courage in fully addressing the overriding climate crisis appears to be the missing ingredient.
