A study of the amount of zoned and serviced land available for housing published this week found that there is sufficient available to meet demand over the next five years.
The bad news is that most of it is in the wrong places. According to the financial services firm Goodbody, only one third of the zoned and serviced land is in the eastern and midlands region, which includes Dublin and surrounding counties, where almost half the population lives.
Unless there is a significant increase in the amount of zoned land – by up to 35 per cent in eastern and midlands region – there is little prospect of any significant abatement of the housing crisis.
Housing for All, the Government’s strategy document, assumes that local authority targets and updated planning guidelines will ensure sufficient supply of zoned land. The issue is also addressed in the National Planning Framework, a revision of which is currently at the draft stage, which sets out some high-level objectives.
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There is a clear risk of complacency on the part of the Government. The targets on which its strategy is based have been overtaken by demographics and measures are needed to ensure local authorities have sufficiently ambitious targets for residentially zoned land and that they meet them. More co-ordination around the provision of services is also required. Much of this may be dealt with in the revised National Planning Framework, but this vital document is still awaited.
As housing supply lags, Government policy continues to underpin demand, making ever more expensive housing more affordable through a suite of subsidies for first-time buyers such as the Help to Buy scheme and the shared-equity First Home scheme. Indications are that it will double down on this strategy ahead of the impending election.
The reality is that as long as it neglects to focus sufficiently on supply side measures – such as ensuring the supply of reasonably priced zoned and serviced land – it will not succeed in tackling the housing crisis. Joined-up thinking is needed to deal with this.