The Irish Times view on preparing for climate change: turning planning into action

The effects of climate change on Ireland will not be predictable. Nor will they be avoidable. A new report from the Marine Institute suggests that some of the consequences of a warming planet will be surprising, and perhaps counter-intuitive. That is all the more reason to prepare for them.

The Irish Ocean Climate and Ecosystem Status Report 2023, published on Thursday by the Marine Institute, presents the latest observations of changes to the marine environment and lays out some of the changes that we can expect to see in the future as a result of rising global temperatures. Sea-level rises, already measurable in recent decades, are expected to continue, while changes in sea temperature and chemistry are also being observed. These changes will have knock-on effects for fish and sea-birds, and for coastal dwellers. About 40 per cent of the population lives within 5km of the coast. The report notes that as the ocean changes, “robust solutions” will be required in response to the threats posed by climate change.

The report also notes the observed weakening of the system of ocean currents known as the Gulf Stream, which brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic Ocean and is a significant factor in Ireland’s temperate climate. There are indications that the Gulf Stream – or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to give it its proper name – is weaker now that at any stage in the past 1,000 years, though it is not clear to what extent this is a consequence of global warming. Nonetheless, the current is expected to decline by 30 per cent in the future, with a small chance that it could shut off completely. Were that to happen, the results for Ireland’s climate would be extreme; scientists estimate that our climate could become 10 degrees cooler, a dramatic change that would have profound implications for how we live. As the world heats, there is the prospect of Ireland getting cooler; such are the unpredictable effects of the unprecedented changes we are seeing in the world’s climate.

The uncertainty of the future outlook does not mean, however, that preparations to mitigate the likely impact of climate change can be delayed. The already-established pattern of rising sea levels means that the strengthening of coastal defences against flooding is urgently required. Wetter winters and drier summers present challenges for water management and infrastructure. There will be implications for agriculture, land use, the fishing industry and beyond.

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To its credit, this Government is more switched on to the threat of climate change than any of its predecessors. But it remains dogged by the difficulty of translating planning into action. The report is a timely reminder not just of the broad and unpredictable nature of the challenges – but of the urgency in preparing for them.