The smooth changeover in Government and the minimal changes made to the ministerial line-up will have not have promoted complacency within the Coalition about the challenges faced by ministers in the new year. Already the health and housing crises point to a difficult beginning to 2023 for the Coalition.
Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath have swapped places in the departments of finance and public expenditure, but their partnership will continue to be one of the rocks on which the Coalition rests. Despite the bumper exchequer returns, they have their work cut out; the rising cost of living will bite harder and harder this year, especially as mortgage-holders feel the impact of interest rate rises. Already the two men face demands from political opponents, the public and their own colleagues for further State assistance for those struggling with higher prices – and are hinting that this will be considered.
It makes sense to utilise what may well be windfall corporation tax receipts to deal with a crisis which is acute, but – let’s hope – temporary; it would be the height of folly to build into the public spending base large recurring expenditures that future resources might not be able to sustain.
Perhaps the most pressing political priority will be to ensure that more homes are built in the State. While targets were exceeded in 2022, there are growing concerns that this will not be repeated in 2023. It would be unfair to suggest that no progress has been made by Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien. But it would be delusional to say that the housing problem is on its way to being fixed. And at the current rate of building, the Government will not be any nearer to solving the problem this time next year. The influx of refugees from Ukraine and elsewhere makes this all the more urgent.
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The new year demands greater urgency at all levels of the system, and a greater focus on overcoming the bureaucratic and legal obstacles that can delay projects unacceptably. The solution will involve spending more State money – but it is about much more than cash.
The other great area of public concern is the health service, where we see a system under huge stress. Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly made progress (at last) with agreement on a new contract for hospital consultants in late 2022, but now he must persuade them to sign up to it. He must see that the recruitment of hundreds of new consultants proceeds quickly. And the latest crisis has again underlined the many interlinked problems in the health system.
As in housing, this is not all down to lack of resources. The health service will consume more cash, but the State needs to find ways to spend money more efficiently as well and deliver the vital improvements which patients need.