WILL THE demands of logic and political self-preservation generate a deal between the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin on the transfer of policing and justice powers from Westminster by an agreed date? In the maelstrom of personal disclosures in Northern Ireland, it appears that sources within these parties are saying that such a development cannot be ruled out. But the operation of normal political criteria should not be taken for granted in such a conflicted society.
The Irish and British governments are seriously concerned the process of devolution may unravel, bringing down the Assembly and the powersharing Executive and putting the entire peace process at risk. Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin and Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward discussed these matters in Dublin yesterday and resolved to encourage a settlement that could be legislated for in advance of the forthcoming British general election.
Timing is everything in this challenging situation. Sinn Féin is seeking agreement on key issues within days and there is evidence that some progress has already been made. Discussions with Sinn Féin negotiators on the transfer of policing and justice powers, involving acting First Minister Arlene Foster and deputy DUP leader Nigel Dodds, are said to have made progress after months of stalemate. Taken in conjunction with Peter Robinson’s commitment to build on agreements already reached and to focus on completion of the devolution process, it would suggest a new departure. In addition, the DUP has indicated it will spread its net by involving the Ulster Unionist Party and the Alliance Party.
A tumultuous week of family scandal and political controversy has significantly damaged the authority of Mr Robinson. But he is still leader of the DUP. And while he has temporarily stepped aside as First Minister to deal with family matters, he intends to play a central role in negotiations with Sinn Féin. These developments, linked to confirmation that support from party colleagues only followed Mr Robinson’s decision to take time out, have caused intense speculation. The threat of early Assembly elections and a loss of DUP seats were probably the most compelling reasons behind that unanimous vote.
Whatever the motivation, Mr Robinson has been granted space to fashion a political recovery. Public support from Dr Paisley and his wife will help. But the task is formidable. Mr Dodds and Ms Foster will have to be brought firmly on side. Sinn Féin will have to co-operate by providing some movement on the parades issue. If those difficulties can be resolved, the remaining elements of the devolution process should fall into place. So far, Mr Robinson has appeared to be more interested in pandering to the party’s extremist wing by publicly frustrating Sinn Féin. Changed political circumstances may, however, dictate a new approach. A stark choice faces Mr Robinson between agreeing to the transfer of powers or ending his political career. Are there grounds for some hope?