Support for Fine Gael has risen to a five-year high while the Labour Party has grown strongly in urban areas, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. With a general election on the horizon, the growing unpopularity of the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats Government is now providing the opposition parties with a valuable opportunity to show their capabilities and to offer alternative policies to voters.
The shift in public opinion will come as a considerable relief to the leader of the Labour Party, Pat Rabbitte, who staked his political career on offering the electorate an alternative to a Fianna Fáil-led government at his recent party conference. The Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, will be disappointed by his personal satisfaction rating, but he can take comfort from the rising level of support for his party and growing dissatisfaction with the Government. Support for the Green Party remained static but satisfaction with its leader, Trevor Sargent, increased. Sinn Féin recovered to pre-Northern Bank robbery levels, in spite of the criminal activities of the IRA.
The decline in the Government's popularity will hardly come as a surprise to the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, in light of a succession of damaging controversies over the treatment of old-age pensioners in nursing homes; dithering over the provision of facilities at Dublin airport; abuses of power within the Garda Síochána; disagreements over disability legislation and a plethora of failures within the health services. But the extent of that slippage - down nine points in four months - will alarm Fianna Fáil because it has eliminated the gains so painstakingly secured as a result of an autumn Cabinet reshuffle and its repositioning as a caring and responsive party in the December Budget.
Fianna Fáil backbenchers will be particularly concerned by a six-point fall in party support which, if replicated in a general election, would cost many of them their seats. The findings are certain to add to the tensions between Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats at parliamentary party level, where the Minister for Justice, Michael McDowell, is already under attack for his plans to change the licensing laws. Disenchantment amongst older voters with the Government almost certainly reflects growing concerns over nursing-home care and failures to reform the health services. In that regard, public satisfaction with the Tánaiste and Minister for Health, Mary Harney, has fallen by six points in this survey and by a total of 13 points since January. The Government will have to lift its performance significantly if it hopes to secure a third term in office.