In this election fight Bertie Ahern, as titleholder, has been happy to coast through these early rounds, letting the contenders throw shapes and exhaust themselves in the process, writes Noel Whelan
He's been able to duck most of the punches thrown by his opponents and even if Fianna Fáil happens to take a few hits, then at this stage of the election bout that is sustainable.
A number of personal characteristics have enabled the Taoiseach's rapid rise in Fianna Fáil, as a young TD and subsequently as a young minister. Among these was his phenomenal work rate; he puts more time and effort into politics than anybody else. Another was his consensus-building skills and keeping the lines of communications open with all sides.
However, Mr Ahern's reputation within the party was also enhanced by his expertise as a political analyst and campaign strategist.
It was to him that Charles Haughey and Albert Reynolds would turn to direct second order elections. He has always had razorsharp political instincts and a first-class election manager's mind. Since he became leader he has, in reality, always been his own director of elections. He may not share it with many but he will have a detailed game plan for the forthcoming election campaign.
Two weeks ago a Sunday Independent front page story revealed how Fianna Fáil insiders are annoyed that the Taoiseach has not called the election already. They are said to fear that he may have missed his best chance of securing re-election. Apparently, some are arguing that he should have gone to the country earlier in the year before the bounce he received in last autumn's polls abated. Interestingly, there were similar stories in the same newspaper around the same time before the 2002 election.
At that time also there were gripes about how Mr Ahern had missed an opportunity to call an election in the spring rather than wait for the summer. He didn't listen then and he won't be listening now. This election isn't happening any day soon.
In recent weeks the Taoiseach has been reminding journalists that the election doesn't have to happen until the first week of July. He is technically correct; the current Dáil can, by law, run to five years from the day it first met in 2002, which would bring it to the second week in June. Polling does not have to be held until somewhere between 17 and 25 days - excluding Sundays or bank holidays - after that. So the first week in July is legally permissible. However, that said, polling day is more likely to be in May. The developing trend of people taking their holiday - or one of their holidays - in June, and greater sensitivity about disturbing State exams probably means that calling polling day for any date later that the weekend prior to the June bank holiday weekend runs the risk of upsetting people.
The last election was held on Friday, May 17th, 2002. However, that election was held a little earlier because of the World Cup.
Those planning election coverage in most media outlets as well as party strategists are now pencilling in May 17th or 18th for the 2007 poll. My instinct is that it could be a week later than that again. The reality of course is nobody knows. Mr Ahern may not yet have decided the precise date himself.
It suits the Taoiseach that the first two months of this election year have been dominated by coverage of other political parties. The tax and pensions proposals from Labour, the PDs and Greens over recent weekends will be stale offerings by the end of April. This weekend Sinn Féin will get their turn on the carousel of pre-election conferences but Mr Ahern knows that in two months all that will remain from these conferences is a residual effect.
He will also be encouraged that proposals for a children's referendum, or rows about tribunal costs are absorbing so much media attention. The more commentators expound on such issues, the less time and space they will have to write negatively about the Government or positively about the Opposition.
Indeed, the Taoiseach's profile has been low key since the start of the year. He has done the set piece radio interviews and the twice weekly leaders' question time in the Dáil, but he has managed to stay out of all the main controversies. The only time he has featured in media reports lately has been on such occasions as the interview from the Downing Street on the evening of his last summit meeting with Tony Blair, or short interviews on the stump as he continues his weekly whistle-stop tours of constituencies.
There will be ample opportunity for statesman-like posturing over the month of March. The Northern Ireland peace process will move centre stage again after next week's Assembly elections.
Even if it all goes wrong, it won't be for the want of effort on Mr Ahern's part. March will also herald the annual trip to the United States. The annual St Patrick's Day junket will afford the Taoiseach valuable photo opportunities at the White House meet-and-greets, where he will be seen with all the right people on Capitol Hill.
The key contenders in the 2008 US presidential election, senators Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Barack Obama, will be only be too glad to be seen rubbing shoulders with the Irish leader.
Bertie Ahern knows that it takes a lot of rallies in country towns for Enda Kenny to come close to competing with that kind of publicity.
The Taoiseach will have been quite happy to let Michael McDowell or Pat Rabbitte be newsmaker of the month in February. The important thing for him is that he is the big newsmaker in May.