WITH FOUR out of five voters dissatisfied with the way the country is being run, it is hardly surprising that a substantial majority of the electorate would like to see a general election this year. What is interesting, though not altogether surprising from anecdotal evidence, is that two-fifths of voters want neither Brian Cowen nor Enda Kenny as Taoiseach after the next general election. The Ipsos MRBI poll asked respondents whether they would like to see Brian Cowen or Enda Kenny as the next Taoiseach or were they “don’t knows”.
The response was instant and illuminating. Some 40 per cent of respondents said “neither” causing a “neither” category to be entered in the poll results.
It is important to point out, in the wake of yesterday’s poll findings, that this “neither” category does not automatically mean Eamon Gilmore.
These findings are likely to create anxiety within Fianna Fail and Fine Gael as TDs assess the threat posed to them by a rapidly growing Labour Party. The leadership of the Taoiseach will be the first to undergo intense scrutiny when a Fine Gael vote of “no confidence” is debated in the Dail next week. Given the Government’s wafer-thin voting majority and its determination to resist an early election, a change of leadership is regarded as unlikely. The threat is equally unfocused in Fine Gael. With three byelections pending and a general election on the horizon, there is no obvious appetite for a leadership heave against Enda Kenny.
All of this could change, of course, if opinion poll trends intensify. Only 21 per cent of voters would like to see Mr Cowen continue as Taoiseach after a general election. Mr Kenny did better with 30 per cent support. But some 40 per cent of voters want a new Taoiseach to lead the next government.
Fianna Fail’s bad showing in this opinion poll could mark a low point for the party, despite criticisms of government policy in this week’s banking reports. Acceptance of the Croke Park deal by a majority of public sector unions represents a considerable achievement.
Public sentiment in economic recovery is gradually improving. Since January, those who believe the worst has yet to come has declined by three points to 60 per cent. More significantly, this figure fell by 13 points to 51 per cent among top income earners.
The distrust of Government because of its handling of fiscal policy is reflected in public support for greater European Union supervision of national budgets. Somewhat surprisingly, given Fine Gael’s reaction to this proposal, 49 per cent of voters agreed with such a development while 36 per cent opposed it. Majorities in all parties, with the exception of Sinn Fein, think it a good idea.
In the present volatile climate, Mr Cowen is not the only one facing complex problems. Mr Kenny has difficult calls to make also. Mr Gilmore and what he stands for will become the new focus of political attention. These poll findings will shape the confidence motion in the Green/Fianna Fail Coalition when the Dail resumes next week.