Sinn Féin members are gathering in Belfast this weekend for their first ardfheis since the general election in 2024. They meet at an interesting juncture for the party.
That 2024 election was both a disappointment and a relief to the party – a disappointment in that the party failed to win power after such a long period leading in the polls, but also a relief that they recovered after the extraordinary collapse in support that saw Sinn Féin win just 12 per cent in the local elections earlier that year.
At times during that period it looked like the Sinn Féin project, in the South anyway, was kaput; so even though the party lost a not insignificant chunk of its vote in the general election (5.5 points), it recovered sharply from the lows of the local elections six months previously. So the 2024 result was not great but it could have been a lot worse. The question for the party is what follows all that topsy-turvy drama.
Since the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Independent administration was formed 15 months ago, Sinn Féin has worked hard at showing the world that it has recovered its mojo. Mary Lou McDonald remains one of the Dáil’s most forceful performers, hopping off the Taoiseach like a Tipperary fullback of the old school. To the extent that they were ever on, Pearse Doherty has taken off the shackles. The party has dialled up its combustible mix of economic populism and nationalism.
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And it has bounced back in the polls. The most recent Irish Times poll in February put Sinn Féin at 24 per cent; its average in all published polls this year has been 22.7 per cent – comfortably ahead of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
But look a little closer and it’s fair to wonder if the party is really any closer to achieving its goals than it was half a decade ago.
Sinn Féin has spent the last year doubling down on economic issues and a united Ireland. Every speech, interview and statement charges the Government with forgetting about ordinary people and seeking only to look after the wealthy, the vulture funds, the banks, etc, while also advocating for the “inevitability” of a united Ireland.
At a commemoration for an IRA volunteer killed by the British Army during the Troubles in Co Armagh last weekend, Doherty told his audience that the “political and economic status quo is no longer working ... an alternative is urgently needed”.
[ Sinn Féin calls on Taoiseach to admit Budget 2026 left workers ‘high and dry’Opens in new window ]
Two things strike me about this. First of all, there was a time before the last election when McDonald used to say that as taoiseach she would not attend IRA commemorations. Secondly, the party was at pains to tell voters before the last election it would not totally change Ireland’s economic model, with Doherty and others going so far as to cosy up to Dublin stockbrokers and the like.
This was not because they suddenly discovered a liking for the swanky seats at the Aviva and lunches in Patrick Guilbauds, but because they (and lots of other people) could see that for all the problems in the country, Ireland’s economic model was pretty good at producing resources for the Government to spend on redistribution, social programmes, public services, infrastructure, etc.
And at the very least you would want a clear plan for something demonstrably better before you chucked all that out.
All that was in keeping with Sinn Féin’s judgment that it had to be seen as a credible government by swing voters in the centre and centre-left if it was to win power.
Now, it seems to have decided this didn’t work at all and a mixture of left populism and united Irelanderism is the way to go. Maybe Sinn Féin is right. But just because the previous strategy didn’t work doesn’t necessarily mean it was the wrong one. It could just mean it was badly executed.
I wonder if a mad rush to spend every penny of the surplus – projections show the State’s surplus is set to grow to more than €9 billion this year – is really a viable platform for government.
Right now, there is certainly a market for anger in politics. There appears to be, in rural Ireland especially, something approaching fury at the Government among many voters. Some of their reasons are valid, some aren’t. But as spooked Fianna Fáil TDs will tell you, it’s certainly real.
But if there’s one thing we know about the conduct of the Irish electorate it is that their disposition can fluctuate enormously from midterm to general elections. Unless there is a drastic change in economic circumstances akin to 2008-11, anger is unlikely to be the defining mood during a 2029 election. Voters tend to take a more sanguine view when consciously choosing a government. In 2024, they weren’t head over heels in love with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – but sufficient numbers of them judged the old frenemies to be preferable to the alternative.
The other pillar of Sinn Féin’s emerging platform is even more questionable as a vote winner. Polling is clear that there is a strong majority in favour of a united Ireland in the South (and a smaller majority against it in the North). But it is also clear that unity is only a priority for a small number of voters – generally around 1-2 per cent – in the Republic.
The more research is done and the more “conversations” we have on the subject, the more it becomes clear how complicated and fraught it would be to work out what a future united Ireland looks like. That is not in itself a reason not to do it. But it is a reason to stop pretending that unity is imminent, inevitable, irresistible or easily achieved.
At an Easter commemoration recently, McDonald said that the biggest obstacle to bringing about Irish unity was the Government. If she really believes that, Sinn Féin is more given to magical thinking than I thought.
