Could a more conservative coalition emerge from the next election?

The current political interregnum has opened up a yawning gap for the kind of political parlour games which enthral the Leinster House bubble. While a ministerial overhaul is undoubtedly important, Fantasy Cabinet Reshuffle is a minority sport at the best of times. Guess Who is in Simon Harris’s Backroom Team is an even more beltway pursuit. Part of this has been an emphasis on the presumptive taoiseach’s talks with Independent TDs whose votes he doesn’t need.

It’s not irrelevant: flattering his margin is an important momentum builder and if he can rely on a largeish effective majority, it makes his undertaking to go the distance more credible. However, with political volatility on the increase, operating effectively in the grey zone of dealmaking with Independents or smaller groups may also prove to be a valuable political skill in the years ahead – including when it comes to government formation.

How might this come to pass? There are two overlapping factors at play.

Firstly, a path to re-election for a government founded on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil has opened up. An underpinning assumption to much political analysis for the past four years has been that the “change” mood which animated the electorate in 2020 will be replicated in the next general election. Mary Lou McDonald herself has articulated the difficulty with this when launching Sinn Féin’s campaign for a Yes/Yes vote in the ill-starred family and care referendums: “Remember, it’s now been four years since anybody went to the polls – that’s a long time to sustain a narrative of change and energy behind that.” If current trajectories are maintained, by the summer Sinn Féin will have a two-year polling slump behind them. It is entirely feasible that after a crisis-pockmarked four years, and with international mood music worsening (some European countries believe the Continent is at a “pre-war” stage) a stability ticket could be attractive to middle-ground voters.

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... the signal a segment of the political system has taken from the referendum results has been to re-emphasise traditional or conservative issues, expressed in part through a broader scepticism about parts of the socially progressive and green agendas

The second factor is, who, in this scenario, would prop the two Civil War parties up. The conventional wisdom (and for now, the stated preference of the Coalition) would be that the Greens step forward again – but their polling is only okay. Failing that, some other combination of centre-left parties would represent continuity.

[ What kind of taoiseach will Simon Harris be? His record gives us some indication ]

But all this may be happening at an important time of realignment in Irish politics. It remains to be seen exactly how this plays out, but certainly the signal a segment of the political system has taken from the referendum results has been to re-emphasise traditional or conservative issues, expressed in part through a broader scepticism about parts of the socially progressive and green agendas. Ireland is not on the verge of reversing decades of social progress, but there is evidence that at a bare minimum, an important tonal shift is under way. How all the big parties react to this, and how it plays out after the next election, is key.

It may also be a messier Dáil, with even fewer clear paths to power than the previous two iterations. In that context, the third leg of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil stool could as easily be drawn from conservative factions as liberal ones

For Fine Gael, Harris is the key bellwether for this process: he embraced the mainstream parts of the change agenda as a Cabinet minister, but since he has become leader, urged on by backbenchers and allies, he has emphasised law and order, rural issues and small business concerns – expect this to be the absolute core of his Ardfheis speech today. Much has been made of Harris’s middling record as a Cabinet minister, in Health in particular, but his skills as an operator and communicator are among his true strengths – he has extremely sensitive political antennae.

If it is correct that Irish voters are beginning a conservative shift (certainly that is the assessment of some of the main figures involved in the referendum No campaign) and if the two Civil War parties are in a position to jointly lead the next government, they may draw potential partners from a Dáil which skews less liberal than before. The parties themselves may also be less enthusiastic about accommodating liberal and progressive totems (one Fianna Fáil insider, asked about the Social Democrats last week, opined: “If you thought the Greens were a pain in the hole, you ain’t seen nothing yet”). It is also likely that the Dáil will contain even more Independents, with four big camps – the three main parties and an independent bloc – alongside a handful of smaller parties. It may also be a messier Dáil, with even fewer clear paths to power than the previous two iterations. In that context, the third leg of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil stool could as easily be drawn from conservative factions as liberal ones.

[ Notion that Fine Gael would benefit from a period in opposition is absurd ]

Non-aligned deputies could play a bigger role in government itself, as well as supporting the government from opposition – a formalised or de facto “confidence and supply”-style arrangement. Such a government would likely cleave to the political bedrock and not shake things up in terms of fiscal or industrial policy, but what is emphasised in a programme for government and how it reacts to issues of the day would be very different. It would perhaps be less stable in a real pinch point, and could further diminish the brands of the two Civil War parties. It would also place a political premium on the powers of tactically astute and effective conservative Independents – Verona Murphy and Michael McDowell types could do well in this new constellation.

[ Tough, lucky and clever (but not too clever): what makes a good taoiseach? ]

Against this backdrop, the current jawing between Simon Harris and the independents takes on a new complexion. The enduring strength of Independents is one of the unusual features of Irish politics. It shows no sign of disappearing – if anything, quite the opposite.