The year 2006 will be one of unprecedented achievement by the Irish State. The sluggish, confused and often incompetent performance of the Government will be replaced by a stunning efficiency and an overpowering dynamism. We know this for sure because, with an election due by the middle of next year, this is the last full year in which the Government can fulfil the promises it made in 2002, writes Fintan O'Toole
Those promises were made with the benefit of five previous years of governance, so they were entirely realistic. The circumstances for their implementation could not have been better, with rapid economic growth providing unprecedented resources. So we can assume that the long list of promises which have yet to be kept will have shrunk to almost nothing the next time we sing Auld Lang Syne.
Here are 10 things that will surely be accomplished in 2006:
1. The end of a national disgrace: the incarceration in mental hospitals of people who are not mentally ill but are intellectually disabled. It was deeply shameful that, in 2002, an Irish government should have had to commit itself to "the ending of the inappropriate use of psychiatric hospitals for persons with intellectual disabilities". It is almost incredible that, in spite of that commitment, 396 people with intellectual disabilities are still in psychiatric hospitals.
2. The proportion of the population living in consistent poverty will be reduced to 2 per cent and child poverty will be virtually eliminated. At present, almost 7 per cent of the population, and almost 15 per cent of children, live in consistent poverty. We will therefore see a massive, targeted intervention by the Government this year to lift these people out of poverty.
3. Early school-leaving will drop dramatically. This was, after all, declared in the Programme for Government to be "a core priority over the next five years". Since no progress has been made on this issue between 2002 and the present, something big must be in store for 2006.
4. Since 3,000 new public hospital beds were promised by 2010, it is reasonable to expect at least 1,500 of those to have been provided by the end of the year. This will be a remarkable achievement given that, as Maev-Ann Wren and Dale Tussing have recently shown, just 535 real acute beds have been added since 2001. The number of such beds per 1,000 of population has actually fallen from 3.1 in 2001 to 2.96 in 2005.
5. Current policy favouring the privatisation of medicine will be completely reversed. The Programme for Government pledged: "We will bring the targeting of health inequalities to the fore in health policy." The actual policy being implemented is one in which private hospitals are being encouraged to the extent that, for every €22 million invested in their development, the Government provides €40 million in tax relief. Since this subsidised growth of for-profit medicine is certain to increase health inequalities, it will be stopped this year.
6. "24-hour GP cover will be extended throughout the country by implementing a new co-operative and out-of-hours service." Since, according to the Minister for Health, Mary Harney, the whole north side of Dublin currently has two GPs on call at nights and over weekends, this will be a fabulous achievement.
7. Road deaths will be cut to 300 this year by a range of co-ordinated Government policies. Given that the number of fatalities actually rose from 374 in 2004 to 399 in 2005, this will take some doing. But, with Martin Cullen in charge, who can doubt that it is going to happen?
8. Eighty per cent of all earners will pay tax only at the standard rate. This is a very specific commitment in the Programme for Government, so we can only assume that the figures in Brian Cowen's 2006 Budget, which show that 32 per cent of earners will pay tax at the top rate this year, must be wrong.
9. Everyone in Ireland will have access to broadband communications in keeping with the clear commitment to "ensure the putting in place of open-access broadband on a national basis". Admittedly, our current position is dismal, with about one-fifth of the number of broadband connections per head as Denmark or the Netherlands, and just 72 per cent of the population having access to the technology. But all this will change in the next 12 months.
10. A metro link between Dublin city-centre and Dublin airport will be built by the end of the year. Presumably the Army has its shovels ready to start digging.
One could be churlish and list an equal number of other targets which have to be met before the next general election and that seem at least as distant now as they did in 2002. Some of them - like the creation of "Donough O'Malley scholarships" for disadvantaged students, or integrated ticketing for different transport systems, or the introduction of night courts - were so specific that you assume someone must have thought about them before seeking a democratic mandate to implement them.
But never mind. The Government will have its hands full just bringing to fruition the 10 plans listed above. When they have fulfilled them, they will have merited a resounding re-election.