Remain side may look to unions as polls favour Leave

Remain campaigners hoping for an improvement in their fortunes yesterday were disappointed when a TNS poll became the third in two days to put Leave ahead by a number well outside the margin of error. The survey of almost 2,500 people found 47 per cent backing Brexit, compared to 40 per cent backing Remain and 13 per cent undecided.

On Monday, ICM and YouGov put Leave ahead by five and eight points respectively.

The only poll in recent days to put Remain ahead is ORB's for the Telegraph, which has Leave five points behind, although the Brexiteers are ahead among those who say they will definitely vote.

Labour MPs and canvassers say Leave is ahead among the party's supporters in many English constituencies outside London, often by a significant margin.

With Conservatives divided almost evenly on the referendum, Remain needs a clear majority among Labour voters to win next week.

Unclear majority

The latest polls agree that most Labour supporters do indeed want to remain in the EU, but they disagree about how big the majority is, with some putting it in the mid-50s and others 10 points higher.

Labour’s problem lies among skilled working-class voters, the social group most emphatically backing Brexit.

Another big element of Labour’s support base, liberal metropolitans, are firmly behind Remain, as are a clear majority of ethnic minority voters, despite being targeted by the Leave campaign.

Labour has some advantages in mobilising its supporters to back Remain, notably the fact that it has a large membership, including many active members. Trade unions can offer important organisational support too, giving Labour a better ground operation than other actors in the referendum campaign.

In terms of turnout, Leave has the support of older voters, who tend to show up at the polling station. But many of Leave’s supporters are less educated, a group that is more reluctant to vote. Remain can boast the support of the affluent and educated, who vote in large numbers, but that side is also depending on the support of young voters, who are notoriously unreliable.

Role of fear

The Leave campaign hopes that the momentum behind Brexit will fire up its supporters to show up on polling day and hold their nerve long enough to vote Leave. Remain is banking on pro-Brexit voters losing their nerve at the last minute as they consider the cost of leaving the EU, while the nerve-wracking poll numbers will frighten pro-EU voters into turning out in force.