London Letter: Cameron ignores lessons of history as he riles Scottish voters

One hundred and sixty Welsh archers from Monmouth sailed for France from Southampton in August 1415 under the command of the lords Brecon and Raglan. Less than two months later they destroyed the flower of the French nobility at Agincourt.

The men of Monmouth returned to mind on Wednesday when chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne put up £1 million to mark the 600th anniversary of Henry V’s famous victory which prompted Shakespeare’s celebrated “band of brothers” play.

There, said Osborne, who left Oxford’s Magdalen College with a 2.1 degree in modern history, “a strong leader” had won against “an ill-judged alliance between the champion of a united Europe and a renegade force of Scottish nationalists”.

It is just as well that Osborne’s degree was in Modern History, because it does not lie with Henry V, since the French did not call on help from the Scots until after Agincourt. Between 1419 and 1424, 15,000 Scots left to fight in France.

Strange union

The vignette has a more serious point behind it, however. The House of Commons in its final days is witnessing a strange union between the Conservatives and the Scottish National Party (SNP), as both seek Labour’s demise.

Prime minister David Cameron seems content to rile Scots by playing the arrogant Tory. Ten days ago he attacked Labour’s Ed Miliband, saying “his only way into Downing Street is on Alex Salmond’s coat-tails. It is an alliance between the people who want to bankrupt Britain and the people who want to break up Britain, and the British people will never have it.”

Sitting across from him in the raucous chamber, the six SNP MPs slapped their thighs in delight: an English Tory was behaving exactly to type. And Scots, helped by ever-febrile social media, would react accordingly.

For now, the Conservatives in London and the SNP have a common ambition: Labour’s destruction in Scotland, since that weakens, perhaps could even destroy, Ed Miliband’s chances of being able to form a government in Westminster.

Scottish voters are being told by the SNP that they can have a Westminster Labour government that is “really Labour” not by electing Scottish Labour MPs, but rather by electing SNP candidates who will hold Labour true to the socialist cause.

Miliband this week rejected an offer that has not been made: a coalition with the SNP. The SNP has no intention of going into government with Labour, but it is holding out the possibility that it could offer a minority Labour administration support, for a price.

Many doubt that the SNP even means a word of that; but it is a dangerously successful tactic in the world of Scottish politics where tempers have been raised since September’s referendum by Cameron’s cack-handed handling of the post-referendum debate.

Labour MPs were strangely content, believing that he had not just ruled out coalition with the SNP, but that he had also ruled out even paying a price for their votes on budgets and votes of confidence.

"They have been reassured that it is not just coalition that is ruled out. Instead, they will be told, 'You're getting nothing, go vote for the Tories, if you don't want us,' "one Westminster figure told The Irish Times.

Questionable logic

The logic can be questioned, to put it mildly. Meanwhile, it is not clear that Labour could even begin to start negotiating to form a government if it comes second to the Conservatives in the Commons seats league table, if SNP support is not enough to make an administration viable.

Meanwhile, Cameron is playing with danger. Questioned about Osborne’s “Scottish renegades” jibe in No 10 yesterday, he reacted with irritation, while an aide peevishly complained that Scots could not take a joke.

Curiously, Cameron is not just annoying nationalist-leaning Scots. He is not doing much for the Scottish Conservatives either, who had a decent referendum campaign and had nursed hopes of minor gains in the campaign to come.

Five years ago, it polled 400,000 votes in Scotland. Today, however, some of its vote will think seriously about voting tactically for the Liberal Democrats “or God forbid, even Labour”, said one, to stem the SNP’s rise.

For Cameron, everything is about May 7th – even the future of the Union. Osborne’s knowledge of Agincourt is questionable; but the Scots did come. In 1421 at the Battle of Baugé they dealt a crushing defeat to the English, slaying the Duke of Clarence.