War has Turkey caught between conflicting international and national interests

Russia's war on Ukraine has caught neighbouring Turkey between conflicting international and national interests.

As a Nato member Turkey has followed the alliance line by condemning Russia's onslaught on Ukraine, designating it a "war", and continued to supply the Ukrainian military with Bayraktar TB2 drones to target Russian forces.

Turkey has denied all warships passage through the strategic Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits linking the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. To justify its ban Turkey cited the 1936 Montreux Convention, which allows Ankara to restrict transit to warships during times of conflict or when Turkey itself is under threat.

Commenting on Moscow's request for passage for four warships, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoghlu stated:, "In a friendly manner we told [the] Russians not to transit these ships."

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To maintain balance between the sides, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has met with Russian president Vladimir Putin, urged him to cease fire and offered to mediate with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, with whom Erdogan is in telephone contact.

Erdogan has a strong personal interest in securing the role of peacemaker in Ukraine as he seeks to end international isolation caused by his regional troublemaking. He has stoked tensions with Greece over the Aegean; Cyprus over exploitation of the island's offshore natural gas reserves; Israel over his support for Hamas; and Saudi Arabia and Egypt for his sponsorship of the Muslim Brotherhood.

He has angered the US and Nato by purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defence system, prompting the US to cancel its sale of warplanes to Turkey.

National interests

Having granted basic Nato demands, Erdogan has turned to Turkey's national interests. He has not followed Nato's example by imposing sanctions on Russia or closing its airspace to Russian aircraft.

Due to compelling strategic interests Turkey and Russia have navigated external differences. While Turkey backs Syrian jihadi groups in Syria's northwest Idlib province and Russia the country's government, Ankara and Moscow have prevented a major battle for Idlib for 2½ years.

They have maintained reasonable relations although Turkey backed Azerbaijan in its war with Russia's ally Armenia, while Turkey supported the west and Russia the east in Libya's civil conflict.

Turkey depends on Russia for exports of wheat, refined and crude petroleum and nearly half of its natural gas supplies. Turkey earns foreign currency from exporting to Russia fruit, vegetables, machinery and vehicles and from Russian tourists who flock to Turkish resorts. A Russian firm is constructing Turkey’s first nuclear power plant.

Finally, Turkey and Russia share the view that they are entitled to seize the territory of other countries. Turkey occupies north Cyprus and enclaves in northern Syria; Russia the Donbas region and Crimea in Ukraine, Transnistria in Moldova and Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

Erdogan’s approach has paid off, and Turkey is not on Moscow’s list of “unfriendly countries” that cannot do business with Russia until given official permission.