UK’s road to a renegotiated EU deal will be an arduous one

A British official in the Justus Lipsius building at the heart of the EU headquarters in Brussels insisted on Thursday evening that David Cameron is clear about the road he is travelling to reform London's membership of the 28-strong club.

If so, it is a sense of direction that is not shared by many other EU leaders, who were faced with Cameron’s demands for EU reforms on a day when they had too many other things to worry about.

The road for the British will be paved with difficulties, a fact that was immediately visible after a BBC report claimed Cameron had backed down on demanding EU treaties be changed before he put a Yes or No question on membership of the EU to British voters.

Downing Street officials quickly went into hyperdrive, insisting weakly that a treaty is binding once it is “agreed” by EU leaders, which fails to heed the difficulties EU states face in ratifying Brussels agreements.

The story is not new. Such treaty changes were never going to happen before British voters go to the polls. Cameron knew that better than anyone, so the question that he had “conceded” the point was of little import; but that is hardly the issue.

For months, it has been understood British demands for treaty change could only be conceded – if at all – on the basis they would be tacked on to the next EU treaty that is agreed, whenever that will be.

It is a route well-travelled in Brussels: the Irish used it over the Nice treaty; the Danes used it over Maastricht.

First retreat?

However, the BBC is the BBC. The story started a slew of others claiming Cameron had made the first significant retreat of the negotiations: dangerous meat for those in his ranks who do not trust him to start with.

Hurriedly getting out the message, No 10 officials said British voters would have “an irreversible” deal in front of them before they are asked to vote on EU membership for the first time in 40 years.

Such an outcome is impossible before next May, Cameron’s most optimistic, if utterly unrealistic timetable; but it is no more likely by the end of 2017, the last date he has given himself to hold a referendum.

Cameron and his foreign secretary Philip Hammond have insisted some of their demands – curbs to tax benefits given to low-paid workers, for one – will require treaty change and cannot be fixed by rewriting regulations.

This is not a message anyone in Brussels or in other EU capitals wants to hear, as illustrated by the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, who said the EU's fundamental values "are not up for sale".

Some capitals are annoyed London has a list of demands, at all; others are irritated London’s action leaves them open to domestic charges that they are not doing the same.

Too weak

Cameron’s main problem is keeping the Conservative Party behind him. He is holding a referendum because he was too weak to head off demands from Eurosceptics in his ranks.

Cameron has maintained a degree of unity in Conservative ranks only because some of his own have not yet accepted, or understood, the nature of the demands he is making of the rest of the EU.

Despite a slew of speeches and interviews, some remained convinced Cameron is demanding more than he is; while significant numbers do not want a deal of any kind.

Some issues can be agreed, or muddied sufficiently, probably. The tougher, faster, more competitive EU he seeks is fine. Some will agree. The ones who do not could tolerate rhetorical flourishes.

Welfare curbs for the unemployed of other EU states could be managed, too, since many northern European countries have similar concerns - but curbs on the welfare benefits received by the low-paid will not be acceptable.

Curbs on the benefits given to low-paid workers in Britain, which are worth up to £10,000 (€14,050) a year for a couple with two children – far more than are given elsewhere – are another matter entirely.

Insisting London has completed a major diplomatic task, No 10 officials said it was significant that Cameron’s demands were on the agenda at one of the busiest EU summits in years.

It was “a milestone”, said one, even if the communiqué that will be issued by EU leaders on Friday afternoon will have no specific reference to the opening of the process.

The next six months will be spent with London officials teasing out details with a European Council team of officials, bringing in those from the European Commission "as they are required".

The matter will “revert” to EU leaders in December, said one British official - a code used in Brussels when agreement is booted down a road that Cameron can see, but for others is clouded in mist.