Spain’s political deadlock broken as Socialists back Rajoy

Spain's Socialist Party will help conservative Mariano Rajoy form a government in an upcoming investiture vote, signalling the end of 10 months of unprecedented political stalemate and a possible power shift on the country's left.

The party held a federal committee meeting in Madrid on Sunday exclusively to decide whether to ease acting prime minister Mr Rajoy’s continuation as head of government by abstaining in his investiture, which is due to take place by October 31st.

The alternative would have been to continue to block Mr Rajoy, of the Popular Party (PP), triggering a third general election in the space of a year.

A total of 139 Socialist delegates voted in favour of the motion to abstain – and support Mr Rajoy – while 96 voted against.

Although the liberals of Ciudadanos have already said they will also back him, his new administration will be in a much weaker position than it was between 2011 and 2015, when the PP governed with a majority.

The dilemma over whether to back Mr Rajoy or block him has become increasingly divisive for the Socialists. Earlier this month, a chaotic internal revolt overthrew party leader Pedro Sánchez, in great part due to his insistence on opposing Mr Rajoy’s continuation as prime minister.

Last week, the Socialists’ caretaker leader, Javier Fernández, had warned: “There’s a choice: abstention or third elections . . . Neither of the two options is good.” Now the party must face the consequences of its decision. Polls have shown that choosing the abstention option would have been more acceptable among Socialist voters several months ago. Now, however, it is deeply unpopular.

Litany of scandals

The Socialists’ fear of being seen to betray their grassroots supporters has been compounded by a litany of scandals affecting Rajoy’s PP which have come to a head in recent weeks.

The trial of dozens of politicians and businesspeople linked to the “Gürtel” cash-for-contracts network recently began in the high court, with many PP politicians facing charges. In addition, the PP’s former economy minister and IMF managing director Rodrigo Rato has been on trial for allegedly overseeing and enjoying a system of lavish perks for executives of the lender Bankia, when he was its chairman.

Meanwhile, interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz has been facing pressure to resign ever since audio recordings emerged of him apparently discussing the fabrication of corruption cases with which to smear Catalan separatist leaders.

These scandals and Mr Rajoy’s implementation of a severe austerity programme made him toxic in the view of a number of Socialist leaders and the 96 delegates who voted against abstaining show how the party remains split on the issue.

“We think our position would be severely compromised by our abstention,” said Miquel Iceta, leader of the Catalan Socialists during Sunday’s federal committee. He led his regional arm of the party in voting against abstention.

But concerns about how the Spanish economy would fare if the political uncertainty continued appear to have been a factor in persuading the party to end the stasis, as were worries about the need to counter Catalonia’s drive towards independence.

Perform poorly

However, a more pressing issue is likely to have been that polls suggested the party would have performed poorly if it had chosen to head into another election. With the more stridently leftist Podemos close on the Socialists’ heels in the last election, there was the possibility that it would have overtaken them.

“With the Socialists’ decision a weak, short-lived government is born,” tweeted Íñigo Errejón, deputy leader of Podemos. “Before, they took it in turns [to govern], now they need each other. We will be the alternative.”

Political writer Josep Ramoneda told The Irish Times that Mr Errejón could be right. "With the Socialists getting into bed with the PP, Podemos now has a great opportunity to take control of the political left," he said. The Socialists, he added, are in desperate need of an ideological and strategic overhaul in order to remain competitive.

Spain’s political crisis began following the general election of December 2015, as new arrivals Podemos and Ciudadanos blew open a political landscape which the PP and Socialists had dominated for 3½ decades.

“Last year was one in which huge hopes of change were raised,” said Mr Ramoneda. “And 2016 has so far been a year in which those hopes have been frustrated. We’re still in a situation of great instability.”