According to republican sources in Belfast, there are growing signs of cracks in Provisional republican solidarity - and this may be leading to the recent rise in knee-cappings and threats issuing from the IRA.
The collapse of the assembly has undermined the political leadership of Sinn Fein. Mr Gerry Adams's calls for street protests - prompted, according to republicans, by the mass turnout for the commemoration in January of the executed IRA man Tom Williams - have been rejected by the republican community.
It is also reported that there are internal divisions in the IRA following the statements made to Gen John de Chastelain's commission in the days before the collapse of the assembly.
There is said to be considerable strain between the elected body within the IRA - the 12-member army executive - and the seven-member Provisional Army Council (PAC). The executive is said to be critical of the political leadership over what is seen as its loss of direction. The army council, which includes a number of Sinn Fein figures, supports the Adams/McGuinness leadership.
One of the traditional ways of assuaging hardline military elements within the IRA has been to allow them to increase punishment attacks and threats. In recent weeks there has been a considerable escalation.
The attacks began in Belfast about three weeks ago, just when the strains within the Provisionals are said to have emerged. There have been five reported punishment shootings since then attributed to republicans in Belfast, Derry and Strabane, Co Tyrone.
In Newry, two young local men have left their homes after receiving death threats from the local IRA under the cover name Direct Action Against Drugs (DAAD). The DAAD title was used during the first IRA ceasefire to admit the killings of up to nine suspected criminals and drug dealers in the North.
Last year, the IRA shot dead two drug dealers, Brendan "Speedy" Fegan and Paul "Bull" Down, in Newry.
The return of the punishment attacks has also occurred at a time when there is said to be growing friction between IRA figures and ordinary criminals in Catholic communities.
According to republican sources in west Belfast yesterday, IRA figures have moved heavily into the black market in cigarettes and diesel smuggled from the South. This has led them into a number of disputes with rival black marketeers. There are said to have been a number of incidents with people being abducted by masked men and threatened, according to the local sources.
There had been virtually no punishment attacks for a year. The last spate of punishment shootings was at the beginning of last year and ended after widespread political criticism.
Last year saw one of the lowest incidences of paramilitary punishments in Northern Ireland. In the four previous years, the number of republican punishments averaged out at 128.25 per month, and loyalist attacks at 118.5 per month.
On the loyalist side, the recent increased incidence of punishment attacks is not seen as reflecting any particular trend in any of the three main paramilitary groups.
There are continuing strains between the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) which led to three recent murders in Co Armagh.
Within the loyalist community the recent attacks are also said to have resulted from what are essentially local disputes between the paramilitaries and alleged criminals.