US: The US's population of legal immigrants would increase by nearly 20 million over the next decade if the recently passed Senate immigration Bill becomes law, and taxpayers would spend more than $50 billion to operate a new guest-worker programme and pay for extra welfare, pensions and public healthcare costs, according to a Congressional Budget Office report.
But the cost of absorbing the newcomers would be offset by a boost of $66 billion in federal revenue from income taxes and payroll taxes generated by the temporary guest-worker programme, along with fees that immigrants must pay to participate, the report said.
By 2016, about eight million immigrants would enter the US as temporary guest workers. Another 11 million immigrants who now live in the country illegally would become permanent legal residents under provisions of the Bill.
The report, the first definitive look at the impact of the Senate Bill, was commissioned by the Senate finance committee. The study has been embraced by the Bush administration and the Bill's supporters, but opponents said crucial omissions greatly lowered its population and cost estimates. Critics said the report does not take into account the 950,000 newcomers who enter the country legally under current immigration law, bringing the 10-year total of new immigrants to about 30 million. Some say that number will double by 2026.
The report also does not consider the possibility of future mass illegal border crossings that might occur in spite of technological enhancement and increased personnel along the southern border, according to critics.
An explosion of immigrants is one reason that House Republicans say they are strongly opposed to the Senate Bill, and have vowed to fight it when members of the two chambers meet for negotiations in a congressional conference.
Supporters of the Senate's approach, which is backed by President Bush, say they will stand firm. "We can build miles of fences, but the fact remains that immigrants will still come because employers need workers and immigrants want jobs," said Senator Edward Kennedy, who fought for a guest-worker programme. A procedural glitch is adding new, and possibly significant, hurdles to the drive in Congress to agree a Bill.
The problem stems from the Senate Bill. Participants in the guest-worker programme would pay income taxes; illegal immigrants would, as part of the legalisation process, be required to pay back taxes and new fees.
The Constitution, however, gives the House sole authority to originate Bills that include revenue measures - and it allows any House member to object if a Senate Bill does so.
Late last week, Senate aides said they received word from the House committee with jurisdiction over revenue issues that it would use that constitutional power to block further consideration of the Senate Bill.