Unscathed McAleese remains on course to win presidential race

Prof Mary McAleese has emerged unscathed from the leaks controversy and is still on course to win the presidential election, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. Her first preference vote has increased by five percentage points to 37 per cent over the past 11 days. Her main rival, Ms Mary Banotti, has increased her core support by five points to 29 per cent. Ms Adi Roche now has the same vote, 8 per cent, as Dana Rosemary Scallon.

Prof McAleese has further consolidated her lead position by attracting a higher level of transfers than Ms Banotti from the other three candidates on each subsequent count.

The first preference vote for the five candidates is: Prof McAleese 37 per cent, up 5 points since the last poll 11 days ago; Ms Banotti 29 per cent, up 5 points; Ms Roche 8 per cent, down 5 points; Dana 8 per cent, up 1 point; Mr Derek Nally 6 per cent, down 1 point. The level of undecided voters has dropped by four points to 13 per cent.

The rating of the candidates, excluding the undecideds, is: Prof McAleese 42 per cent, up 3 points since October 11th; Ms Banotti 33 per cent, up 4 points; Ms Roche 9 per cent, down 7 points; Dana 9 per cent, up 1 point; and Mr Nally 6 per cent, down 3 points.

Based on these results, Prof McAleese would be elected on the fourth count, following the elimination of Mr Nally, Ms Roche and Dana in that order. She then records 56 per cent to Ms Banotti's 44 per cent.

The remarkable performance of Prof McAleese, coupled with the collapse of Ms Roche's vote, are the main findings of the poll, which was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies last Wednesday. A sample ballot paper was presented to the respondents.

The most surprising feature of this poll is the solid position of Prof McAleese, both in first preference and transfer votes, in the wake of the heated atmosphere created by the leaks controversy. A major shift in the voting pattern will be required in the remaining days of the campaign if Ms Banotti is to have a chance of winning next Thursday.

Four out of every five voters, 80 per cent, say the publicity surrounding the candidacy of Prof McAleese has either made no difference to their voting intentions or encouraged them to vote for her. Some 15 per cent, 22 per cent of Fine Gael voters, indicate that the publicity has encouraged them to vote against her.

A few other interesting findings in the poll show that Prof McAleese commands a higher vote in Dublin than the capital's MEP, Ms Banotti. Prof McAleese's current support in Dublin is 37 per cent, up 9 points in 11 days, while Ms Banotti's is 34 per cent, up 7 points. Ms Roche is polling 7 per cent, down 3 points.

The level of satisfaction with the Government, at 55 per cent, remains unchanged during the campaign. But all of the party leaders have been affected.

The rating for the Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, has dropped by 17 percentage points to 43 per cent since the first poll in the campaign four weeks ago. The ratings of all other party leaders have dropped by six points each. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, stands at 67 per cent; the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, 56 per cent; the Labour leader, Mr Spring, 51 per cent; and the Democratic Left leader, Mr De Rossa, 46 per cent.

With 18 per cent undecided, the current state of the parties is: Fianna Fail 51 per cent, up 1 point in 11 days; Fine Gael 27 per cent, up 1 point; Labour 10 per cent, down 3 points; Green Party 3 per cent, up 1 point; Progressive Democrats 2 per cent, down 1 point; DL 1 per cent, down 1 point; Workers' Party 1 per cent, up 1 point; Sinn Fein 2 per cent, up 1 point, and Others 2 per cent, down 1 point.

Drapier: Page 12; Full poll results and analysis, Page 13; Dick Walsh and Maire Geoghegan-Quinn: page 14; Editorial comment: page 15